But what if my sell high player keeps on outperforming?

I got this question from a reader in the comments section (which for some reason got erased when I switched over to a private domain) and it's a valid one, glad he brought it up! For reference, new readers should read the earlier blog posts first!

When you sell a player high, such as Carmelo Anthony right now, you'll be getting (what I like to call) FULL VALUE. That is, so long as you're getting players back in the trade that equate to valuing Melo as the #2 overall player in the league, you have nothing to worry about.

Let's take a look at the exact type of trade I mentioned. For starters, I sold Jason Tompson and bought Caron Butler. Now if JT does NOT mean revert, and Caron ALSO does NOT mean revert, then the two should finish the season with comparable stats. I've lost nothing because I got FULL VALUE for Thomspson. Alternatively, my counterparty in the trade that sold me Butler (and was Selling LOW) needs JT to continue this pace AND for Butler to stay slumping to just break even on the deal.

The Melo trade, whereby you'd get back Amare and Rose is the same issue. Even if Melo continues this torrid pace, you're getting back two players who, even if they continue to slump, are still of the same value as Melo is RIGHT NOW.

And I have to be honest here, it could happen. Melo could have that rare MVP season and JT could be the nest great big man. But like I said, by selling them high, or at peak performance, you're getting back enough to successfully cash in on the deal.

But what this question really comes down to is: Don't fall in love with your players! I know it's tough. It's tough to not want every Carmelo on your squad right now. It's counterintuitive to be going after Caron Butler. That's why it works and why it is easy!

A great example is a player I blogged about last night, Courtney Lee. Courtney began the season shooting in the low 30% range. This was abysmal, painful, and he was being universally dumped by managers. But it is VERY unlikely that a career 45% shooter will run for a whole season at a 30% clip. This is a human being, who was at practice shooting every opportunity he got, working to get himself back to his MEAN level. Last night you saw the culmination of that effort with an astounding breakout game. Hope you didn't sleep on him!

In the strategy MEAN REVERSION, we first have to identify a players MEAN, or basically their average performance level. The best, most accurate indicator is going to be their career levels. When I look for a solid Sell High or Buy Low guy, I look for a player with an established career (college and pro's) where year in and year out his numbers stay pretty constant.

Sure, the mean (or average) is a moving target. Melo has increased his PPG for his entrie career. And I'm sure he'll push it higher this year. But it's likely not going to be THIS much higher. You know that, I know that, but the kid you're selling to doesn't know that. He just wants that big stud player on his team any way he can get him. And at no point in time during the rest of this season will Melo possibly garner MORE back in a trade than right now. Don't fall in love, cash that puppy in.

Does this strategy work 100% of the time? NOPE, butI can tell you that with my help, it'll work 80% of the time, and that will leave you with one hell of a stacked team by seasons end. And besides, we don't want it working 100% of the time, else no one in your league would ever trade with you again!

Stay tuned for a post later today which will outline my current BUY LOW and SELL HIGH players.