Head to Head Strategies: Player Correlations

Here’s something you probably don’t think about very often but can have a huge impact on your weekly head to head matchups in any fantasy sport. It has to do with having too many players from the same team, or too many players with any kind of similarities, and how that impacts your game. In statistics, the term is correlation. Correlation is a powerful explanatory statistic that you can harness for success.

During the 2009 Fantasy Baseball season, one of the managers in my league was dominating his regular season matchups. He had an extremely powerful lineup anchored by three specific players: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez. These three guys all had excellent seasons, and in fact for Ibanez, it was his best season ever. They all also play for the same team, the Philadelphia Phillies.

This manager entered the playoffs that year as the number one seed in the league, and proceeded to get bounced by the number 8 seed in the first week of matchups. It was a stunning defeat as we all expected his team to at least make the semifinals. Errr, they all did. What this manager hadn’t properly accounted for was the power of correlation. Situationally, during the first week of the fantasy playoffs the Philadelphia Phillies faced three former Cy Young award winning pitchers. As a whole the team had difficulty producing runs, and none of their players produced anything fantasy relevant. This is a risk you need to avoid in head to head matchups.

Correlation is a measure of the magnitude of strength of the relationship between two variables (or in this case three). Without running the actual numbers, it doesn’t take a genius to see that, on average, when one of the Philadelphia Phillies hitters has a good game, the other hitters have a good game too. If Raul Ibanez knocks in a home run, it’s likely that Chase Utley and Ryan Howard were on base, thus scoring runs themselves. If Chase Utley isn’t getting on base, then there’s no one to score when Ryan Howard smacks a double, and thus no RBI. In baseball, correlations have a strong impact on your game, and it’s wise to not own too many hitters from the same team. The same does not hold for pitchers, or pitchers and hitters, because (again as you would assume) there isn’t much correlation between how a pitcher does one night, and how the next pitcher does the next night, or how the pitcher does and how the hitters do. 

We see much of the same football too. If your QB is playing against a tough defense, I wouldn’t want to own his primary receiver too. No matter how good they are, the chance that the QB has an off day, or plays a tough defense, just when it matters most, is too high for my liking. The same thinking goes for Tight Ends; however it does not go for running backs in general. This is because teams tend to be defensively focused; they’re good at stopping either the pass or the run, rarely both.

Basketball is the one we care about the most. Correlations show up in basketball just as much, but in different ways. I hold Chris Paul and David West on my team, which isn’t an issue in ROTO but is a no no in H2H. However this isn’t due to a team correlation, or fears of them playing a good defense, but instead is due to player correlations. Fact is, when CP3 does well, West does well. When CP3 steals the ball and runs the floor, the dish off is going to David West following him. As rare as it might be, I’m not going to bet my entire season during playoff week that CP3 won’t go cold, thus making two of my players go cold. Same thing goes for Steve Nash, Jason Richardson, and Amar’e Stoudemire. Both J-Rich and Amar’e are highly dependent on Nash running the floor well, they need him to do well. If he struggles, they struggle.

If you haven’t gotten the point yet, let me spell it out clearly. You don’t want to own guys that play for the same team as your top PG’s. The risk is too high that they will have a bad game during playoffs, thus negating two or even three of your players on that one game (or stretch of games). You don’t want to own two (or more) players dependent on the same PG either, so if you’re holding J-Rich and Amar’e on the same squad, listen up. This all (of course) highly depends on the point guard. In general, guys like Nash, Deron, CP3, and Baron Davis are the highest risk names. The other players on their team don’t generally score well when their PG plays poorly. It’s different on say, the Celtics or even the Wizards, where there’s players that can drive and score (like Paul Pierce or Caron Butler) or work the post to draw in defenders (like KG). Other cases, where there are two distributors, are OK too, like the Hawks (Bibby and Joe J) or the Cavaliers (LBJ and Mo Will).

Remember, in a H2H league, it’s all about the playoffs. Give yourself the best chance to win and take the least amount of risk doing so. Learn about the players on your squad, find out how they score and who they are dependent upon to do so. Then set yourself up for success when it matters most. This is how WE dominate. 

Hope you all like the new site designs!

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Last Month's Average Stats

We can use the Analyzer and pump players in, we can look for articles that list guys out, but I’ve got an even easier way to help you find those key Buy Low and Sell High targets we’re all looking for: Last Month Average Stats. Most default stat lists, such as Yahoo or ESPN will default to the Season Total stats and then rank players from there. They have the option to change the periodicity (week, month, season) as well as the method (average or total), but people often overlook these. For my work I like to set it to Average stats over the last Month. Here’s why:

When we sort by season stats, the most prominent stat we are looking at is Games Played. If a guy missed a month this season, but has been a monster since he’s returned, he still won’t look as good as an average player that hasn’t missed a single game. Ok that’s the obvious stuff. What it also shows is each manager in your leagues relative frustration level with a specific player. If a player has underperformed for the whole season, chances are pretty good that his owner has gone well past the frustration level and into stubbornness. He’s likely now convinced this guy is going to have a monster second half. For us, chances are pretty good that a guy who has underperformed from day one, and hasn’t had any significant injuries, just isn’t very good anymore. A good example of this is Shawn Marion.

On the flip side, a player that has underperformed for the last month has really, just gone cold. These are the guys most managers are dying to dish off. It gets them scared, they wonder if the player will ever return to glory or if he’s doomed for failure. They fear they must trade him now before his value goes even lower. They enter into fire sell mode, and start rapid firing offers out to everyone, usually asking for way too much. If the guy is a Tier Three player, they’ll send him out asking for a Hot Tier Three player in return. No one is going to take your cold Tier Three for their Hot Tier Three, that’s just plain stupid. And thus everyone will send back a prompt rejection…..everyone but US. Take a glance at those Average Stats over the last month, sort the players by their preseason rank (I know you can do this in Yahoo, not sure about ESPN), then read through the list for those guys with a huge difference in the ranks. For some, we can just ignore and skip over, like (again) Shawn Marion (no I will never buy him low). But some are those hidden gems we’re digging for. About four days ago, one of the best that would pop up for you would’ve been Jason Richardson.

Richardson was a prime target. Hot start, quick extended decline, prime for the plucking. I snagged him up for pennies on the dollar in my league, and I hope you all followed suit. The buy low is door is quickly closing on him. Look to offer a Hot Tier five or maybe even Tier four player in the deal. One guy that’s ripe to be dealt is Randy Foye, people love him and his potential. He’s never going to go higher than Tier Three (this season anyway) so why not ink a deal for a guy we know is in that Tier.

Oh yeah, my latest run through of the Average Month Stats and rankings, brought up some solid buy low candidates like Al Jefferson, Lamarcus Aldridge and even Carlos Boozer….bet you didn’t know that last one, unless you owned him of course!

So what are you waiting for? There’s offers to be made!

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Position Scarcity is Bunk

That’s right I said it, position scarcity is bunk. So the next time you’re getting ready to draft and some service tells you that you need to use their ‘customized rankings’ because they take into account ‘Position Scarcity’, please save your loot. For those unfamiliar with the term, position scarcity essentially means that there aren’t enough players that perform well at the particular position, so you should move that position up the order in your ranking sheets. While this comes into play mainly for drafting, if you buy a service that factors it in, you’ll receive rankings throughout the year. Let’s take a look:

To start, the way position scarcity is determined is by running the average stats for all players, then comparing the stats to other players at the same position. If there are large jumps between what the top few produce and the rest of the group, the position is considered scarce. In basketball it’s often either true Centers or Point Guards that get this label. The formulas used will factor in how deep your league drafts, then determine if there’s enough players at each position that serve you well enough to fill out a roster. So if we had a 2 position league (PG and C) with one stat category (points), and the top 3 PG’s averaged 20 points with the next 9 averaging 17 while the top 3 Centers averaged 20 points with the next 9 averaging 12, these services would tell you to grab one of those 3 Centers before grabbing the 4^th PG. Ya feel me? It’s all about the relative value.

Now this would be fine and dandy if we were just a bunch of math geek stat junkies that didn’t actually play fantasy sports. But we aren’t. We’re a group of baller’s that follow our league and our team every day and constantly work to make it better. That means we constantly monitor our waiver wire and make the necessary moves. When it comes to my turn in a draft, I take the next best available guy at the position I need to fill. End of story. If I have an open Utility slot, I take the next best available guy period. This is why we use Tiers here and not Rankings. If I need a PG and we’re into the second tier of players, I’m taking a PG from that second Tier. If we’re into that same tier and I have an open utility slot, I’m taking the guy I like best from that Tier, regardless of the position he plays and how scarce it is.

Why? Because every single year there is always an FA wire player that plays well enough to be a starter on any team, at every position. So long as we know where we are weak, we can handle anything. If I have the option of taking Carlos Boozer and Lamarcus Aldridge versus taking Boozer and Tony Parker because ‘there was a run on PG’s and/or it’s a scarce position’, I’m taking the former every time. Then I’m going to enter the season knowing that I’m weak at the PG position, and I’ll scour that WW for PG’s every day. I’ll grab up the hottest player after all the early games until I find one going on a streak. This season would’ve likely netted you a Tyreke Evans or Brandon Jennings, Reke has been good throughout, Jennings had a very hot start. From there I’d be sending out numerous 2-1 trade offers until I netted that top PG I wanted, and still get to keep Lamarcus Aldridge and Carlos Boozer.

The best part is, I’ll have little competition from people on the FA wire because they all went after the same position in the draft. Everyone will have their PG’s and will likely be looking elsewhere. You could name a guy that was FA wire in almost every league to start the season, that would have filled out the weak spot in your roster nicely, and if you timed a trade just right, you’d have traded up to a Tier two or three player. Marc Gasol, Tyreke Evens and Jennings, Luol Deng, Danilo Gallinari, Channing Frye…..

So the next time someone tells you ‘Hey, I can give you a rankings sheet that will factor in your league size and position scarcity’, tell em, ‘No thanks bub’. Take the next best available player, and work your magic.

I hope everyone finds the new Analyzer useful. I think I’m done adding to it, but keep an eye out for the weekly stat update on Monday. I’ve been working on one for baseball and hope to have it ready for use soon.

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What Is The Most Valuable Category?

Such an important topic to hit today. A little background for you, I've been busy between last night and this morning updating my player ranks and tiers, and updating the data for the Analyzer. It's tough work, but once you get through it, it's fun to look at the results and play around with them.

So this morning I'm going through the ranks and I notice some guys bumping up, some bumping down, and some staying the same and I start to see a pattern. So I went back to the optimizer and essentially asked the question 'Which stat category are you placing the most value on when you rank a guy'.

I came into this season telling myself it was assists, after all there's only a limited amount of PG's out there and there's a pretty big variation between the numbers guys drop. But there's more to the story! The analyzer reminded me that it's not just the variance that matters but the magnitude as well. Sure there's less guys dishing out dimes, but the one's that do, all get a pretty close amount. In other categories, you might have more guys contributing, but the top guys are in such a league of their own that it has a big impact.

So I poured the analyzer and myself a cup of coffee and got down to business. Follwing are the major stat categories and their relative value to one another.

7. Turnovers Per Game -3.66
I'll start with the lowest and easiest, turnovers. We've already established the fact that you can't have a winning team without tanking TO's, and apparently the analyzer agrees with us here. Note the score next to the stat, I placed it there to give you all an idea on the differences.



6. Points Per Game - 4.15
Not a shocker here. While there are a couple of 30 point scorers, there's enough 20+ point scorers and even guys around the 16 mark to make this a deep and easy category to attain.

5. Steals Per Game - 4.80
Whoa, our first surprise. I would've thought steals were a tough category to get. I think that comes from rules changes in the NBA, and also the fact that there's much mroe passing now than there was just a few years ago. No more one on one matchups means more steals, means their easier to find.

4. Rebounds per Game - 5.14
You can thank guys like Ben Wallace and Erick Dampier and even Gerald Wallace for this one. It seems like you can find solid rebounds at almost any position this year, and thus there's only marginable value to acquiring them.

3. ASSISTS PER GAME - 7.40
Now you gotta look at the score here, you can see that I wasn't far off. Assists are quite valuable, but still only 3rd in our list. I was pretty stunned at this one myself. I think it has to do with teams really looking to start a solid distributor on their team, so while dimes only really come from PG's and LBJ, almost all the PG's give you what you need.

2. Three Pointers Per Game - 8.70
Here's your Danilo Gallinari and Channing Frye stat line. You can thank those two for skewing our whole distribution. They just don't feel like they're doing all that much, but apparently just one of them locks you up pretty good. I was surprised here a little, caught off guard.

1. Block Per Game - 8.99!
Wow, you know I would've said blocks after assists, but never thought blocks were that hard to come by. Here's the thinking behind it now that I've looked at the numbers. In order to get a competitive amount of blocks, you're going to either have to get a stud like Howard or Duncan or even Noah, that chip in other categories, or you have to take a Sammy D or Big Ben which will kill you in many places. Yes folks, blocks have the most value in fantasy basketball this year.

Put this information to good use! When forming your trade offers, even if you're strong in a particular category, don't be so quick to ship it off. If you're heavy in blocks, that's a good thing and keep in mind that if you trade yourself short, and someone gets injured, you might have a tough time getting those stats back!

Hope you enjoyed! I'll update later with my latest Top Tiers report.
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To Punt a Cat or Not to Punt to a Cat?

To punt or not to punt, that is the question! I get this question a lot, is it better to have a well rounded team or is it better to just punt some areas and try to dominate other areas? The short answer is yes. Yes it’s better to have a well rounded team; yes it’s sometimes better to just punt certain categories. One thing you’ve gotta realize is that no matter which strategy you follow, you’re always going to be punting at least one category. Chances are pretty high that if you win your league you’ve also got a pretty low score in turnovers. That’s why turnovers is such an important category, it’s nearly impossible to do well there if you’re doing well elsewhere. But is there an advantage to one of these strategies over the other?

Yes, no matter how you cut it, in basketball, whether you play ROTO or H2H, it’s always better to play for a well rounded team than to play for 5 or 6 categories. I’m going to talk a little statistics here so if I bore you I’m sorry, but it’s integral to learning why one is better than the other. Let’s say you have a three category league: points, rebounds, assists. You’ve decided to embark on a strategy of going after just point and boards and ‘punt’ assists (to those who don’t know the lingo, to ‘punt’ means you just effectively give up the category. So you have this team and they average say 20 points per game, 10 rebounds and 2 assists. Now suppose the teams you play against all have well rounded squads, and they each average 17 points per game, 8 rebounds and 5 assists. You win every game, right? 

Wrong. See there’s something called a standard deviation. Standard deviation is a way to determine the range around the average you can expect a certain amount of time. For points, the standard deviation is about 5. This means that roughly 70% of the time (to any math geeks, I’m using rounded numbers here) your team will score between 15 and 25 points per game. The standard deviation on rebounds is about 2.5, so again 70% of the time they’re pulling down between 7.5 and 12.5 rebounds, you get where I’m going here? For assists it’s about 2.8, which means you’re going to score between 0 and 4.8. Now of course the same numbers affect your opponent too, but nonetheless you can see that by only going after a limited number of categories, we are reducing our chances either for the season (in ROTO) or per week (in H2H).

The only way we can give ourselves the best opportunity to win is to try and be competitive in every category (even turnovers, though this is futile). You can see that after factoring in the standard deviations to both teams, the guy who is well rounded is much more likely to pick up either points or rebounds to beat you, then you are to pick them both up to beat him (cause you have no real shot at assists. If you’ve taken the strategy to punt, don’t panic, there’s more.

In my example, I said everyone went for a well rounded team. This is generally not the case, and it’s more likely that at least a few other teams have gone the punt route. In this situation, you stand a very good chance of beating them, and a halfway chance of beating the rounded teams, and thus have a shot at the playoffs or the title. Also, the less categories you decide to punt, the better chance you have at winning too. This is why the Team Analyzer is so important; you need to know where you really stand. If you are going to punt some cats are dominate in others, you had best REALLY dominate in them to give yourself a good shot. This means entering a season with that particular strategy in mind, and executing it from day one to the end. Be consistent, stay focused, execute.

During the 2009 baseball season one of my league members decided he was going to ‘punt’ starting pitching and just go for hitting. He drafted all top hitters and then went after a couple closers and left starting pitching for the very end. His team dominated for the first half of the year. Then for some unknown reason he deviated from this scheme and went for a big trade sending a solid hitter away (Matt Holliday) for a stellar starting pitcher (Chris Carpenter). This was devastating as he quickly started dropping in the rankings almost immediately. After about 4 weeks he reversed course and dealt the pitcher for a solid hitter and resumed his climb. He ended up winning the league last year.

Did he win because he punted categories? No. Will I win my basketball league this year because I have a well rounded team? No. In the end, we both entered the season with a solid winning strategy, then worked to execute it from day one to the end. If you choose to punt, the road is tougher, but it can be done. If you choose to be well rounded, the road is easier, but not infallible. In either case, you need to know what you’re going to do before you draft, then work that angle and keep working it throughout the season. The guy who tries to make a mid season shift out of panic because of his position (really guys, we haven’t even hit all-Star break or the Trade Deadlines, WAY to early to panic) is the guy destined to lose.

We don’t panic here (most of the time lol). We don’t let a bad month or a bad stretch or a bad start shift our strategy. We stay focused, we continue to execute, and we dominate.

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Knowing Your Limits

My very first fantasy league was pre internet, back in high school. Me and 3 other friends would get together, have a live draft, and then follow the stats through the newspaper. It was a football league which meant there were fewer games, and each player was commissioned to check another guy’s stats. Then came Yahoo Fantasy Sports and the game was forever changed. I played one ‘test’ season of baseball on Yahoo and was instantly hooked. So hooked in fact, that the very next season I dove into four different football leagues, two public, two private. Didn’t take long before I realized the limits to my attention and competitiveness.

I know what you’re thinking, the more the merrier. But there’s a limit to how much attention you can place in a sport before it becomes detrimental. Today, I play in no more than two leagues per season, a number I find to be optimal for a bunch of reasons. Moreover, there are an optimal number of stat categories to play with as well, all centered around making sure you’ve got the best shot at winning. Let’s address some of the issues with playing in either too many leagues, or with too many stat categories, or both.

1. You Can’t Love All the Players All the Time

Of course, with the Team Analyzer, it sure seems easier to build winning teams! But look, if you’re sitting in three or four leagues, chances are you’ve got like 30 different players you’re rolling with and you just can’t be high on all of them. You’re essentially saying that the guys you have on one team in one league are good enough for a different manager owning them in a different league to win with. Moreover trade offers, add/drops, and roster moves all become that much more difficult. I head into every season with a list of guys that I want and while that list might change, I simply don’t accept having a team with guys I don’t want. I recommend playing in two leagues max, and working to have as many of the same players on both teams as possible. It cuts down the confusion, shores up your strategy and allows you to focus on what matters most, winning.

2. One Smaller League is Better than Two Bigger Leagues

Fact: everyone playing in more than one league will make the statement about each of those leagues that “There’s a couple guys that make moves but the rest of the league is dull and inactive”. I had the same problem early on. It boils down to the fact that there are two types of fantasy sports players, there’s “US” and there’s “THEM”. US are the people who spend time on sites like this, US are the people who are always working deals, and US are the guys who watch our teams as often as we can. THEM are the guys who like the idea of fantasy sports, but not the commitment. THEM are the guys who come to a draft unprepared, pick their players, and then are never heard from again until the next draft. THEM are the guys that do not eat, sleep, and live the game. Why play in two leagues with half of US and half of THEM in each, when you can just cherry pick the US’s out and form one solid group. One thing I can promise you, the rest of US in that league are dying for someone to take the reigns and make it happen. For my group, I was that guy. Every season I make it clear to everyone I play with, you’re expected to be one of US, if you turn into one of THEM, you’re getting booted to go play with THEM in a stupid nonsense public league. We must have active managers in order for us to be effectively active ourselves.

3. The 20 Stat Categories League

More is not better, it’s just more confusing. Adding in all the nonsense stuff like technical fouls and four different variations of whether or not a guy can hit a three pointer is pointless and damaging. The only thing this proves is that a commissioner can check a whole bunch of boxes in setting up the league. The unintended consequences of such a strategy are mind boggling. If you’re looking at your league and Brendan Haywood and Ben Wallace are top 30 players because you’ve added 4 different ways to calculate the fact that they get a lot of rebounds, you’re entirely missing the point of playing this game. They get rebounds, great, that’s nice, but they are not better than someone like Stephen Jackson who has a nice rounded stat line but doesn’t pull down 10 boards with 6 defensive and 4 offensive to compete with a Haywood. More is not better and it makes it harder to know who you should be going after.

If you’re a hardened veteran in fantasy sports, it’s time to step up and play right. No more than two leagues, with a reasonable amount of categories, so you can properly focus on a core of guys that will bring home the gold. If you’re new to fantasy sports then you’re lucky enough to read this and save yourself many seasons of frustration before figuring it out.

It ain’t about proving you can follow more leagues than the next guy, or more stats than the next guy, or more players than the next guy. It’s about proving you can beat the next guy by employing a consistent and effective strategy. This is how we dominate, this is how we win.

One last note about the Thief Nation forum and Team Analyzer. If you’re new to the site and don’t have access, but have read this post enough to make it this far, we welcome you here. It means you care about playing and winning and you likely can offer us as much valuable insight as we can offer you. To access the Forum and the Analyzer, click on the links above this post (Thief’s Tools and Thief Nation) for instructions on how to do so. We don’t give out blind access to ensure we keep THEM out. If you haven’t gotten this far (then you won’t be reading this) or if you haven’t noticed those links, and just send me blind requests to access the tools and forum, you won’t get very far. Current members can rest assured that they are surrounded only by US, and if you want to join, take the time to do it properly (it ain’t hard and it’s all FREE!).

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Deciding When It's Time Send a Slumper to the Dumper

Easily, the single hardest thing to do in fantasy sports is to call it quits with a player you had high expectations for…..at least it should be the hardest thing to do. Owners tend to fall into one of two categories, either they cut bait on a player too fast, and essentially sell low on him, or they hold on for dear life from day one to the end of the season. Obviously neither of these scenarios is ideal, and obviously they don’t account for all the times we do make the right move, be it to continue holding or to drop quickly. Also, and again obviously, any B00B can sit back and tell you after the fact that you made a boneheaded drop, or boneheaded trade, or were stupid to hold so and so. This post aims to discuss the steps I like to take in the situation where a player has….gone cold.

To make the example, I’m going to use Jason Richardson, a player I own and unfortunately my timing on him was about a week early else I’d have gotten him a lot cheaper. J-Rich officially went cold on December 12^th with an 8 point 5 board ugly performance. His next game was even worse, and then didn’t even play in the following match, all surrounding a minor hand injury.

Step #1 – Two Bad Games in a Row = Keep playing him

If I benched every guy on my team after a spate of two or three bad games, I’d miss out on an enormous amount of bounce back games. You know what that does; it takes the REVERSION out of MEAN REVERSION. So yeah, I don’t do too much quick benching. On the 19^th J-Rich dropped 22 points and proved to me he still had it, but more importantly, by not benching him I was able to pick up the bounce back game stats. This is in essence a micro view at the Mean Reversion strategy working in process by the way, but it didn’t end there.

Richardson put up another stinker on the 23^rd, quickly bounced back for two nice games, and then put up an abysmal 4 point 2 rebound performances on the 28^th, not much better on the 30^th, and again a 5 point 2 board game on January 2nd. Three poor games in a row – not good. 

Step #2 – Three Bad Games in a Row = Decision Time

Can’t ignore this sign now, three tough games in a row following a stretch that was wholly uninspiring. Now’s where I face my choice, do I bench him or do I continue to play him, the thoughts Trade and Drop do NOT enter my mind. Seriously, trying to deal ANY player after a 3 game slump, with the latest being a 5 point performance is plain stupid. What could I possibly expect to get in return? You’re kidding yourself if you don’t think every single fantasy owner at least looks at the last 5 games he’s played in. If J-Rich were on another owner’s team, I’d be hammering him with Thieving offers right now, trying to vulture up another stud. I’d be counting on his worries hoping to score big. Buy Low, Sell High.

Back to the situation, and it’s decision time. Do I bench or do I continue to play him? Now I told you all before J-Rich is one of my ROTO studs. He provides a stat line that fits real nice into any lineup. I made the decision at that point to stick with him. So far so good as the next two games were gems, scoring 20 points in each, dropping two treys in each, shooting over 47% from the field in each. That’s the J-Rich I know, mean reversion works again.

But suppose I hadn’t chosen to stick it with him. Suppose this was Trevor Ariza or some other guy I wasn’t sold on. Suppose I come to decision time and I choose bench. Fine, he goes to my bench and another guy comes onboard and we watch. Again I’m not sending out trade offers here as that would be pointless unless I’m looking to toss up a partial birth abortion type deal.

Chances are though, that if I’ve gotten to the benching stage, I’ve decided that eventually I’d like to deal him. Read that again, if I benched him, I best have decided that eventually I want to deal him. Something about my original analysis of him has changed and I don’t want him anymore. We all make mistakes, fine.

So we watch him for a few games, maybe a week or so and we see how he progresses. Then comes the two back to back good games, 20ish points, 5+ boards, somewhere in that range. Here’s where it gets ugly, cause here’s where many will all of a sudden fall back in love with the guy, and go right back to playing him. You’re like a battered wife, he hits you and you’re all talking divorce, but once things settle down, you’re back in love. Bad Bad Bad fantasy owner. This is the PERFECT opportunity, and possibly the ONLY opportunity you’re going to get to deal him.

Mid performance on that second game, you need to be sending out those offers. Hammering everyone in your league. Check who needs what stats and dish him out there. Don’t be selling low, sell him like he’s right back in the swing of it. Get VALUE. Remember, everyone loves the hot hand, everyone loves to buy high, and this is the time to ink it. Hopefully you’ll pull it off, and hopefully you’ll get a more consistent player on the verge of an upswing who will offer some better consistency, crisis averted.

Step #3 – No Trade, Things Don’t Get Better, Time to Drop.

Maybe those back to back 20 point games don’t come. Maybe they came and you missed the opportunity, or no one bit the offers, and now he’s back slumping again. This time it’s longer, this time he’s on a 7 game bad streak. Ugh. It’s alright though; he’s been on your bench so he isn’t exactly hurting you. But again, we’re at decision time. Two choices, either try to dump him off low, which would be nice but unlikely, or send him to the graveyard WW. This is where many people cut bait on Charlie V. Rightly so, the dood was becoming a severe liability and there were better options out there.

Fine, done, he’s gone and now you’re holding someone new and the relationship is over. DON’T LOOK BACK. It’ll kill you. On the 8^th game Charlie V posted a nice stat line and all the bait cutters had Seller’s Remorse. You ignored the fact that he was 4-6 from beyond the arc, a statistical anomaly. You’re upset and loathing the move. Who cares, move on. It’s your season, you made the decision, and I promise you this won’t be the ‘make or break’ choice for your season, so long as you followed the steps.

Stay consistent in your approach. If you have conviction in a player, if you’ve done the research, don’t dump him too quickly. Use your bench for what it’s supposed to be used for; benching a slumping player when it’s obvious he needs to be benched. Make the decisions when they need to be made. Don’t be that guy The Thief comes knocking on the door of, tempting you to sell low before you should. Be the Thief.

This is how we dominate our leagues. This is the road to victory.  

P.S. I DID end up dumping Roy Hibbert earlier in the season. I DID end up going back to him. There was a material change in his playing time and situation and my analysis again changed. It was almost a month apart and it’s been a good move. It’s OK to do this, but have a better reason than ‘he just had one lights out game’.

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Fantasy Player Rankings Explained

Fantasy Player rankings are everywhere. They are the most often used way to value a player. They are used to draft, used to trade, used to add/drop, everything. But everywhere you go, different places have different rankings, what gives? Is it as simple as differing opinions? Not quite, Thief’s here to give you the low down on how rankings are created and why they differ. Then I’ll give some insight into why I use a Tiered system instead of hard ranks, and why you should do the same.

I’ll try not to delve too far into the math of it all and keep this as a bird’s eye view discussion. Not saying you wouldn’t follow the math, but just that it’s kinda boring. So let’s say you found yourself sitting down with a list of every player and all their stats to date and you want to create rankings. There’s actually 4 different ways to do this, and I’ll go through each way one by one.

1> Judgmental

Pretty straight forward actually, all you’re going to do is look at the list and pick out where you think guys fall. There’s not really any math involved, or nothing complex anyway, you just know who the top players are and who the lower players are and you rank them. Chances are you won’t get much past the top 50 this way, but it’s still something. Sometimes they’ll even mix in (for preseason) average draft position to help the rankings. You can think of a certain Yahoo! Fantasy Sports analyst’s rankings as falling in this category.

2> Quantitative

Here’s where you set up a scoring system. You score each player based on where they fall in each stat category, and then sum the scores. Sort of like the way Rotisserie scoring is done. The guy who has the most assists gets the highest score for assists. So on and so on. It’s very numbers based, and very accurate, BUT it doesn’t account for injuries (like Kevin Martin) or being traded or all sorts of other things that only show up in the judgmental method. This is why you’ll head to some sites and see a list that looks 80% good and 20% WTF? Because the guys who run the numbers on these programs are mainly math geeks, and really don’t play fantasy sports.

3> The Thief’s Method.

I combine all three approaches. I use a quant program to score all the players and then set their ranks. Then I go through those ranks and boot out the ones that don’t make sense, and boost up the one’s that do. Like anyone out there trying to tell you Kevin Martin isn’t a top 50 player, just doesn’t get it. I combine the ease and accuracy of quant with the experience and knowledge of judgmental. Then, instead of a hard rank, I place all the player’s in Tiers….

Why? Great question, glad you asked! Look it comes down to the difference in player values, the difference in the scores. Ranking CP3 as first and Lebron as 2^nd and say Kobe as 3^rd makes it seem like they are all pretty equal in value. But they aren’t. In fact, as I showed you in my ‘So How Good is Chris Paul’ post awhile back, he’s a lot better than Kobe. In fact, a more accurate ranking would probably be CP3 as first, LBJ as second, and Kobe as 5^th, then Dirk as 5^th and a half. Or in other terms, CP3’s rank score is about a 12, LBJ’s is about an 11, then Kobe is about an 8.5 and Dirk is about an 8.3. The problem with a hard 1, 2, 3, 4…. ranking system is that it doesn’t show the magnitude of the difference between the players.

SO what I do is set the top Tier at CP3 and LBJ, who both have rank scores over 11. Then I’ll set the next Tier at all the guys from say 7 to 9, which consists of like 12 players. 2 rank point’s difference from Tier One to Tier Two, then again to Tier three (maybe a little deeper). What this tells you is that it really doesn’t matter if you get CP3 or LBJ, just get one of them. Then on your next pick, it doesn’t matter which Tier Two player you get, so long as he’s in the second Tier and compliments your first pick. If you took LBJ, your second pick should be a Tier two PG. If you took CP3, your second pick should be a Tier Two PF or C.

This is what it’s all about. Playing smarter, knowing what you’re getting, building a winning team not just a group of highly ranked guys mish mashed together. This is what the Thief is working to bring you.

Hope you’re all enjoying the new Forum! Remember, when you try to sign up for it, there’s two parts. First you REGISTER with the forum, then separately you subscribe to be a member (and in doing so send along the PASSWORD). I know it seems like a pain, but you just have to do it once, and this makes sure we keep out spammers and people who aren’t affiliated with our blog. In the end it’s worth it to be sure you’re surrounded by like minded peeps.

Don’t worry playa, The Thief’s got you covered!

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Time To Take it to The Next Level

It’s time to take this blog to the next level! We’ve got the advice part covered with daily posts ranging from fantasy alerts to insights on how to work the competition. We’ve got the analysis part covered by discussing trades, looking at them through a quantitative lens and ensuring we achieve the right goals in dealing. There’s still one piece though, and it can’t be done without a little collaboration from you.

You see, in all the years that I’ve watched sports, and all the years I’ve traded stocks, I’ve learned to be able to tell the difference between real news vs. opinion and speculation. When it comes to researching a company, nobody gives it to you straighter (except in those rare unethical cases) that the company’s own people. After those guys, the next best group to follow is the industry professionals. For instance, if I want to check in on Electronic Arts (EA), I’m first going to see what the CEO has to say, then I’m going to check in with different gamer magazines and places like IGN (a website that covers video games). Likewise, if I’m going to find out information on the Boston Celtics, first I’m going to listen to Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers, and then I’m going to listen to the Boston Herald and Bob Ryan or WEEI (local sports radio), ya feelin me bro?

When Lady Thief starts hearing rumors about her favorite star QB Peyton, or hears some guy on ESPN comment that the Colts are in a state of disarray, she immediately turns to the Indianapolis Star (local newspaper) and then she tunes in to hear what Tony Dungy (former coach of the Colts) has to say. WHY you ask? Because it all boils down to jobs. It’s Bob Ryan’s job here in Boston to cover the Bruins, the Celtics, the Red Sox and the Patriots. Sure he keeps up to date with other teams, but his specialty is local juice. He’s ‘in’ with the teams. He gets scoops no one else gets. He talks to them weekly, that’s his job. Doc Rivers job is to coach the Celtics. When a reporter asks him a question, he answers, he doesn’t lie (notice I didn’t say Bill Bellichick, cause he does lie). It’s not his job to lie, it’s his job to tell you what he knows, and get back to coaching. On the flip side, what’s Stuart Scott or Mike Wilbon or Tony Kornheiser’s job? It’s to report on everything everywhere, which means they simply can’t get down to the same level of detail as the local guy.

So where am I going with all this? Well, hopefully I’ve convinced you to focus on local news over national news for the real juicy stuff. ESPN is for entertainment and big picture stuff, but your local newspaper is for getting ‘the scoop’. Now here’s where you all come in.

We need to get some collaboration going on these message boards. Plenty of you were hitting the comments section asking for any status updates on Gilbert Arenas or Paul Pierce. While I was able to offer the news as I heard it for Pierce, I’m not as ‘in tune’ with local DC news. But YOU are. If you live in or around DC, if your favorite team is the Wizards, you’re the guy we need to hear from. If you’re out in Indiana, give us the local scoop on Danny Granger’s status (his coach spoke to the Ind. Star last night, said Granger is 2 – 2 and a half weeks away). If you’re out in Miami, give us an update on what you’re hearing about Rafer Alston. Cause 9 out of 10 times it’s your local newspaper and your local news reporters that will get the info first.

I read the statement Jim O’Brien made on Danny Granger, then watched as several ‘entertainment’ based sports outlets reported it in 6 different ways. We need the words, we need the facts.

So I’m making a call to you all, every single person reading this blog. Open up and drop the juice. You out in LA? What’s the status on Blake Griffin? You out in Detroit? How’s Charlie V sounding after his recent performance? Let’s work together to make it easier on each other. Cause if it’s one thing this whole Gilbert Arenas affair taught us, it’s that TIMING IS EVERYTHING. Oh, and please quote the source too.

THIS is the kind of stuff that takes our game to the next level.

P.S. This goes for you too Christo. Even though you’re out in Bulgaria, we know you’re in love with Tyreke Evans, so get us the scoop on his playing time when Martin comes back!   =)

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Playing For More Than First Place

We’re gonna take a little detour today and talk about a peripheral part of just about every Fantasy Sports league, the side bet. Now let me just start this out by saying I am in no way condoning or advocating illegal gambling. Just incase there’s any lawyers out there trying to catch me in a loop!

But for me, the side bets are almost as important as the league itself (and in some cases, way more important). Now I realize that not all of you are able to engage in bets within your league. Whether it be because you don’t know everyone that well, or it’s against your religion, or whatever. Take heed, even still this post will provide some insight into the thought process of The Thief.  

Most (if not all) of us play in a Fantasy Sports league where we pay an entry fee to join and the winner gets a payout at the end. This actually isn’t illegal as George Bush passed a law in 2006 that said quite specifically, playing fantasy sports for money isn’t the same as gambling. It’s a game of skill not a game of chance. Booyah. So you’ve already got money tied up in the league, and you’ve got something to shoot for. The ultimate goal is to win the first place trophy and prize money, but if you miss, you want to be sure you still ‘played for free’ no matter how that dough came in (whether it be through a side bet or through taking second or third or whatever).

For obvious, and legal, reasons, I can’t sit here and advise you on bets. That’d be pretty dumb of me anyways. But what I can do is let you in on some of the wagers I’ve placed, my thoughts and insight into each of them, and then let you make the decisions for yourself. Before we get into descriptions, a couple points of note: 1> don’t put yourself out on a limb. The total amount of all wagers (in monopoly money of course!) should not exceed 1.5 times what you paid to enter. So if your league costs 100 to play, your total bets shouldn’t exceed 150, else you’re putting yourself out on a limb. 2> Structure the bets to give yourself an edge; you’ll see what I mean below. 3> PayPal and Revolution Money are great ways to make and pay off bets when you can’t physically meet the person.

1. Making a Bold Call

This is actually the worst kind of bet to make, and I have to admit my ego gets the best of me and I often lay one down. In this scenario, you’re generally going out on a limb to show off how intuitive you are about sports in general, and many times the wager comes as someone tells you to put your money where your mouth is. One example came last NBA season, just before the playoffs, and I was hugely bullish on the Orlando Magic. I was telling everyone that I felt like the Magic were going to ‘win it all’. If you recall, they were definitely heavy underdogs to win it all, and even underdogs to win the East. One of the guys I play with challenged me on it, offering me 2-1 odds on the bet and I had to take it to prove my knowledge. Well, you know the story; they really looked great and made me look like a genius all the way up to the Lakers. In the end, people gave me kudos for a great call, but I lost the bet. Moral here, be careful on betting on bold calls, it just isn’t worth it.

But I still do. This season I wagered with a buddy preseason NFL that the Giants would finish 8-8 or worse. Though I sweated through the first 6 weeks, it proved right, and I cashed in. Still, the odds are against me and I only did it to look smart. Gotta be more careful with that.

2. Playing Your Buddy’s Ego

My favorite and easily the one you’ll most often win. Ever play in a league where after the first month of play the guy in first with a big league starts spouting off how perfect his team is? He constantly hits the message board with posts about how wrapped up the league is and how bored he is of the competition? Me too, and that’s where I strike. “Hey bro, 2-1 odds say you won’t finish in first place”. It works every time, and the odds are so slanted in your favor it’s ridiculous. He knows this too, but his choices are to either A> back down from posting or B> make the wager. 9 out of 10 times he’ll make the wager rather than face the ole ‘not so confident anymore eh?’. Make sure you structure the payoff to a place he’s comfortable with, makes the acceptance more likely. Nailed a guy on this last year, and although I didn’t win the league, I ended up taking home more than enough to pay for my entry. BE CAREFUL, if you play with shady characters, they might try to make shady trades to screw you on the bet. This doesn’t happen in my league and shouldn’t happen in yours.

3. Jockeying Your Position

This final wager has to do with your historical record, your counterpart’s historical record, and them being ahead of you in the standings. Remember, guys go on streaks and your position in the league changes often. I’ve got a couple guys in my league that are just perennial losers, but every season, without doubt, there’s a moment where they think ‘this is my chance!’. 12 team league, you’re in 7^th, they’re in 3^rd. You look over the rosters of your squad and their squad, and you know it won’t last. This guy loses every season; somehow he always finds a way. He might not finish last, but he definitely doesn’t finish above you. You get into a discussion ‘Hey man, you’re crazy, your team isn’t that good’. Sometimes it even comes right after the draft, he says - ‘WOW I definitely had the best draft of anybody!’. Perfect, we know you’re better, time to cash in on it. ‘I’ll bet you (blank) that I finish higher in the standings than you’. Works every time.

Sometimes winning isn’t just about bringing home the trophy. But it’s always about being declared the winner. I’ll do my best to keep you all in the loop for any future wagers I make. I just paid one off this morning, made a preseason bet that the NJ Nets would make the playoffs this year (yeah I’m calling defeat here). Stupid Bold Calls!!

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Joe Schmoe Sportswriters

We’ve all fallen victim to this mistake in the past, and no matter how much we tell ourselves it won’t happen again, we continue to do it. I’m talking about paying too much attention to the news. One thing I can tell you for certain is that Joe Schmoe news writers, and especially sports writers or fantasy sports writers, don’t get paid to produce dull stories. We’re talking about a group of guys and girls that went to journalism school to learn the art of making even the dullest of events interesting. It is without doubt that after every single big game a player has, there will be some writer out there making it seem like this is the big breakout or he’s the next dominant player. Likewise, after every single disappointing night for a superstar player, there’s at least one person telling you he’s injured or he’s not happy or he just doesn’t have it anymore. It’s all a load of bull.

If there’s anything you should take away from this site, it’s that numbers don’t lie.

Particularly when you’ve got a bunch of them put together. In fact, the more numbers you got, the closer you get to the truth. Alternatively, a good writer can make you completely ignore the numbers and go straight to the emotions of the day.

Early in the 09 baseball season, I was sitting there going over my team and realizing that with both Jacoby Ellsbury and Chone Figgins on my squad, I was too heavy in the stolen bases category and in need of a pitcher. I approached an opponent of mine with a sweetheart deal, Chone Figgins for Rich Harden. He replied to my trade request with a rejection, and almost exactly quoted the latest news story of the day. ‘Hey man, while this deal looks real good on paper, I fear that Figgins just isn’t the same player he used to be, and his batting average is too low’. This after a game where Figgins went 0-5 and the little note next to his name in fantasy said exactly ‘Figgins doesn’t appear to be the same player he used to be’. Way to be original buddy. Figgins went on to have an outstanding year and in fact ended up being my keeper. Hooray for me, boo for the other manager.

During the 2009 football season, in his first game of the year, Matt Schaub threw up a real stinker versus the NY Jets. I had scouted Schaub pretty heavily during the off-season (he went to my wife’s alma mater, so she played a part as well) and had high expectations for him. Immediately after the game reports came poring out that Schaub looked shaky, he looked like he must be hurt, and that the Texans might want to think about benching him. Taking this foolish advice to heart, I benched Mr. Schaub in week two of the season, a move that cost me the win that week as Schaub bounced back with a stellar performance…….and it cost me the division title in my league, which I missed by one win. Shame on me.

Two other players that have had much of the same types of stories written about them early this NBA season were Kevin Garnett and Gilbert Arenas. For both it was after disappointing games, and while both are coming off of injury plagued seasons, the stories were equally glorified to the point of ridiculousness. Many ballas out there dealt Garnett and Arenas on this advice, and aren’t too happy about doing so today.

Don’t get me wrong, injury news matters. It makes sense to track your players and see if they are injured, and if they are, to see what that injury is. But you have to do your best to parse out the opinion from stories and get right to the heart of the matter, what happened. Then all it takes is a quick google search to discover relevant information and expectations on the injury. If it’s a jammed finger, or a cut on the face, or something insignificant, have no fear that the player will be fine and not suffer performance wise. This, despite those incessant notes next to the players name that will tell you ‘OH GOD IT WAS HORRIBLE!’.

And aside from that, there really isn’t anything else to pay attention to. If a player has a bad night, and some Joe Schmoe tells you his career is over or he’s fighting with his wife or he’s about to have a child or whatever, just ignore it. These are professionals and talent trumps all. Everyone has a bad game, or even a bad streak of games, don’t make a stupid mistake because some writer made you believe it was going to last forever. And just incase you forget what to expect from a guy, have no fear; a quick glance at his past performances should remind you that this is indeed a slump. Look over any player last year, even Kobe Bryant (who in April 09 had back to back 16 point games) and you’ll see that off-nights just happen (more so for some than others). Always trust your gut, and the work you put into scouting players, over the latest news story from some guy trying to earn a living.

Thanks for being patient while I update and make changes to the blog. If nothing else, it should load a lot faster for everyone now!

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The Philosophy of Fantasy Sports

What separates my strategy from the rest? What makes the Thief so much different than any other advice site or blog out there? Why are you better off coming here to ask questions and get answers than any other forum out there? The answer to these questions all comes down to Philosophy. You see, 99.9% of the content out there, no matter which fantasy sports site you visit, is all based off the draft. These guys spend countless hours trying to nail down some way, be it mathematically, or opinionated, to rank players in some fashion to prepare you for a draft. They truly believe they can predict the future better than their competitors. Two problems with this, first that no one can predict the future, and second, this doesn’t help anyone actually build a championship team.

Excluding football for the moment, any true fantasy balla understands that (whether you play Roto or H2H formats) it all comes down to building a winning team and a winning strategy. This means either building a team that is well balanced among the different scoring categories, or building one that is dominant in a majority of them. You and I know this; every website out there involved in fantasy sports apparently does not.

When I rank players, be it for the draft or for midseason play, I use a tiered system as opposed to hard ranks (1, 2, 3, 4…). Why? Because I could sit here and construct a team for you in either baseball or basketball that is chock full of top 50 players but will get crushed. Following some Joe Schmoes draft sheet, I could comprise a five man team of Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan, Gerald Wallace, Derrick Rose, and Joe Johnson – which on paper and going by draft rank sheets looks dominant. However in actual play, based on a standard league format, this team will consistently lose in 3’s, FT%, points, assists, and turnovers. Alternatively I could build a team with mid ranked players that would win, week in and week out, because it is well rounded with players who contribute to each category. When it comes to your pick in the draft, you MUST understand that it’s more important to take a PG if you have a bunch of PF’s as opposed to taking the 29th ranked guy on your sheet because he has the best rank left on the draft board. This is what separates winners from losers.

Will Kobe increase his points per game this year? Will Carmelo increase his points per game? I don’t know and neither does anyone else. What I do know is that they are both scorers and it makes no sense to have both when you need rebounds. What I do know is what their career average PPG is, and that by the end of this season, their PPG will be ABOUT what it has been in the past. And with this information I can make sure my team has a solid distribution of each statistical category.



During the season, what separates my advice from the rest of the information out there? Well, for starters, most sites will focus on ADD/DROPS from the WW. Again, they will use a recent game or string of games to argue as to why you should pick up so and so. Yeah, I’ll do that too from time to time, but we both know the REAL JUICE comes from trading. That WW guy you just grabbed, who will either be on your bench or the last guy in your starting lineup, ain’t gonna be the difference between winning and losing a season. However dealing Paul Pierce after the first month when his FG% was an anomaly (stupidly high) and snagging Amar’e Stoudemire in the trade after a slow start, WILL win you fantasy leagues. Particularly if you know which categories of stats you are dealing away and which ones you’re getting.

The difference between me and the rest of the sites out there is that I don’t try to predict the future. I just use the past to make a reasonable assumption about the future, and help you use this information to build a winning strategy. Fantasy sports drafts last one day and MOST of us finish a season with less than 20% of the guys we drafted. Trades happen all season long, and it is utterly important to know how each trade affects your squad. It’s also important to know that the guys you are trading will likely decline in performance as the year goes on, and the ones your getting will only improve. Other sites will tell you to go after the HOT PLAYER OF THE WEEK, and sell your cold players. That’s just plain stupid and a sure fire way to lose. Let me graphically show you what I mean. Below is an image of a player’s statistical performance throughout the season. Players go one streaks, be it hot or cold, and their performance does not go in a straight line. Sure it might trend up, might trend down, but in the end, this is what you’re gonna get…

Peaks and valleys, peaks and valleys. Prior to coming here, your whole strategy was based on trading for players as they peak. Everyone loves having the hot player on their team. Likewise you traded away players as they valley, practically giving them away. Instead, I try to teach you that, using history, we can make a reasonable assumption as to what Jennings will finish the season averaging. Then if we trade him away at a peak, and trade for a player in a valley, we ensure that we’ve always got players on our teams that are in the upswing of performance. Moreover we ensure that our opponents get players who are about to go on a downswing for performance. Double bonus!

Does this work 100% of the time? NOPE! But it doesn’t need to. However it does work 4 out of 5 times. It worked for Amar’e, Gerald Wallace, Caron Butler and Paul Pierce, but not (yet) for John Salmons. That’s more than enough to bring home the gold. By following this blog, you’ll have access to my research. When I issue out a Buy Low or a Sell High, you can be confident that I’ve put in the time to check a player’s history, see if he’s injured, and see if it’s a new coach or new team affecting his play. You won’t get this anywhere else. Moreover, with my Secret Sauce Calculator, you’ll know exactly which players are right for you to go after, and which ones are right for you to offer out.

Now again, I know what you’re thinking, ‘Great! I’m never going to tell anyone about this and keep all this info to myself’. Well for starters that would suck for me since blogs are only profitable if they get sufficient traffic. I want to keep all this research and tools free to you and get paid by advertisers, so I need to increase traffic. But more importantly, it will NOT hurt you to tell your opponents about this site. It will increase trading in your league, as everyone will know which categories to focus on. If an opponent needs assists and you need rebounds (but have assists to offer), in order to make a trade he needs to KNOW he needs assists. At that point, you’ve both made your teams better.

Moreover, no matter how much I tell you to buy low or sell high, you’ll be amazed at how many people will STILL do the opposite. It’s ingrained in nature. They’re stubborn, their egotistical, or their just playing their own gut feelings which is fine too. So while my site and my calculator will convince him he needs to trade, YOU can still convince him to sell low on Amar’e and buy high on Brandon Jennings.

I hope you all enjoy the site, and the spreadsheet. Remember you must be subscribed to the blog (receive posts via email) in order to get the password to access the spreadsheet. It’s been a real pleasure so far doing all this, and I hope it continues to grow. Stay tuned for my latest Buy Low candidates this evening. Don’t worry playa, Thief’s got your covered.
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But What If My Sell High Player Keeps Outperforming?!

I don't even remember what this F*ckin post says, but I know it's a solid lesson for the newbies to learn, and even my oldest readers will get something out of it. More importantly, I'm seven hours n a bottle of scotch down and The Secret Sauce spreadsheet is almost ready for delivery. This will take your game to the next level, and take this blog with it. You will instantly know your sauce, regardless of league size, and know what stat cats you need to focus on. Easy to use and FREE cause the Thief's got you covered. I'm rolling it out first thing Monday, with stat updates available every Monday after that. Taking it to the next level. Now read this post so you can learn how to dominate. I'll be up for awhile, holla if ya hear me playa.
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---this ones for you Christo =)---------
I got this question from a reader in the comments section (which for some reason got erased when I switched over to a private domain) and it's a valid one, glad he brought it up! For reference, new readers should read the earlier blog posts first!

When you sell a player high, such as Carmelo Anthony right now, you'll be getting (what I like to call) FULL VALUE. That is, so long as you're getting players back in the trade that equate to
Let's take a look at the exact type of trade I mentioned. For starters, I sold Jason Tompson and bought Caron Butler. Now if JT does NOT mean revert, and Caron ALSO does NOT mean revert, then the two should finish the season with comparable stats. I've lost nothing because I got FULL VALUE for Thomspson. Alternatively, my counterparty in the trade that sold me Butler (and was Selling LOW) needs JT to continue this pace AND for Butler to stay slumping to just break even on the deal.

The Melo trade, whereby you'd get back Amare and Rose is the same issue. Even if Melo continues this torrid pace, you're getting back two players who, even if they continue to slump, are still of the same value as Melo is RIGHT NOW.

And I have to be honest here, it could happen. Melo could have that rare MVP season and JT could be the nest great big man. But like I said, by selling them high, or at peak performance, you're getting back enough to successfully cash in on the deal.

But what this question really comes down to is: Don't fall in love with your players! I know it's tough. It's tough to not want every Carmelo on your squad right now. It's counterintuitive to be going after Caron Butler. That's why it works and why it is easy!

A great example is a player I blogged about last night, Courtney Lee. Courtney began the season shooting in the low 30% range. This was abysmal, painful, and he was being universally dumped by managers. But it is VERY unlikely that a career 45% shooter will run for a whole season at a 30% clip. This is a human being, who was at practice shooting every opportunity he got, working to get himself back to his MEAN level. Last night you saw the culmination of that effort with an astounding breakout game. Hope you didn't sleep on him!

In the strategy MEAN REVERSION, we first have to identify a players MEAN, or basically their average performance level. The best, most accurate indicator is going to be their career levels. When I look for a solid Sell High or Buy Low guy, I look for a player with an established career (college and pro's) where year in and year out his numbers stay pretty constant.

Sure, the mean (or average) is a moving target. Melo has increased his PPG for his entrie career. And I'm sure he'll push it higher this year. But it's likely not going to be THIS much higher. You know that, I know that, but the kid you're selling to doesn't know that. He just wants that big stud player on his team any way he can get him. And at no point in time during the rest of this season will Melo possibly garner MORE back in a trade than right now. Don't fall in love, cash that puppy in.

Does this strategy work 100% of the time? NOPE, butI can tell you that with my help, it'll work 80% of the time, and that will leave you with one hell of a stacked team by seasons end. And besides, we don't want it working 100% of the time, else no one in your league would ever trade with you again!

Stay tuned for a post later today which will outline my current BUY LOW and SELL HIGH players.
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The Best Way to Play Fantasy Sports

I realize that we are already well underway into the season, so the timeliness of this post isn’t exactly perfect, but it’s important nonetheless. As you all know I’ve been a commissioner for a competitive league for over a decade now. During that time I’ve had the opportunity to fiddle with different setup types to try and determine which ones are the best for promoting fun and competition. I’d like to touch on a few points that I think will go a long way toward making your league better, and making sure my readers have the full advantage they should get from this blog. If you are currently a commissioner, I highly recommend these changes next season. If you aren’t currently a commissioner, then I suggest appealing to your commissioner to implement these next season.



1. Don’t Only Play in a Public League

Public leagues are good for one thing and one thing only, getting into a fantasy sport that you have never played before. The very first baseball league I ever played in was a public league, and the only hockey league I’ve ever played in was a public league. People generally join these leagues either to learn how to play or to have a second or third fantasy team going. Thus, the members of these leagues are generally less competitive, pay less attention to their squads, and have little or no interest in trading with you. There is little action on the message boards, and establishing trade relations is nearly impossible. I highly suggest going forward that you try to join a private league. If you don’t have enough friends to put one together, the forums on both yahoo and ESPN constantly have people who post looking for extra members.



And just to make it even easier, I’ve created my own Post Board in the right hand column of the page where you are free to post either looking for members or looking for a league. Don’t be shy either. -------------look here!----------------->



2. The Dumbest Rule in Fantasy Sports

Remember that public baseball league I was talking about. Yeah well coming into the final months of the season I was solidly in second place and making my move toward first. However my Shortstop had just gotten injured and I had no backup. Luckily, I had an extra first baseman and so I hit the trade wires. I ended up working with a team in 7th place and getting him to deal me Nomar (who was good then) for my first baseman. It was about as even of a deal as you could want. My trade got vetoed. Why? Because the league knew that if I had this SS, I’d have a shot at competing for first, without him and I was screwed. They didn’t vote n the validity of the trade, they voted on where my position in the league was.



Trades should be vetoed for one reason and one reason only, collusion. It is never acceptable to have two managers collude in trades to try and stack one team. It is up to a commissioner to know if people are doing that, and stop the deal if it happens. However taking advantage of someone’s stupidity is part of this game. Trades shouldn’t be vetoed because the league members know better than the managers making the deal. Many times I’ve witnessed deals that looked lopsided, but ended up being the opposite in the end. Hopefully as a commissioner you have managers who aren’t completely stupid, so there’s no LeBron for Tracy McGardy deals. But in the end, ONLY the commissioner should decide if a trade is OK or if it should be vetoed. This decision should ONLY be based on the presence of collusion.



3. The Auction Draft

Hands down the best way to draft is via auction. If you’ve done it before, sound off in the comments section cause I know you loved it. If you haven’t done it before, I guarantee if you do it once you’ll never look back. It is the MOST fun and MOST fair way to draft. Everyone starts off in the same position, no random first draft pick guy getting CP3, that’s stupid and unfair. I’m sure this is ever more obvious now with my last post. As a side benefit, Keepers are much easier to do with an auction draft, but more on that some other time. I mentioned this before, I’ll say it again, I know yahoo doesn’t offer Auction drafting yet (which hopefully they fix soon) but I know ESPN does, and they offer it for free. So each season my league drafts on ESPN, and then I input the players into yahoo (goes much faster than you think) and we play there.



These three simple tips will help make sure you get the most out of your fantasy experience. The rest of the customizations are really up to you, but I’ll add in that I usually don’t add in stat categories, and only modify roster sizes based on league size (bigger league = smaller roster). Hope you found this useful!
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Polls - Why I place them and why you should vote in them

Interestingly, I place those little polls next to the first post for a reason and it isn't just for fun. It's a psychological test too. Look at the way the last poll ended, we asked:

Who is the best buy low candidate?

Amare Stoudemire - 24%
Stephen Jackson - 11%
Derrick Rose - 13%
Caron Butler - 13%

just by looking at the totals, and seeing that most of us voted for Amar'e, tells you that he is NOT the best buy low. If he was, everyone wouldn't have picked him. Remeber we're looking for those guys that a manager is DYING to just GIVE to us. In reality, Amar'e is the worst buy low, because everyone knows he's just slumping. You follow?

This is why polls are anonymous and we all answer truthfully, then you can walk away with some real good knowledge. I encourage you all, take a moment to vote on them. Going forward, I'll give a heads up when I change the poll (basically as the situations change) and I'll try to give you a sense of what I'm looking for from the poll.

For the next week the poll will be:

Who is the best Sell High candidate?

Simple enough right? Only here, my guess is that the guy with the most votes will be tough to sell and the ones with the least votes, those will be easy to sell. You catching on yet? People are going to vote for the guy they'd have no problem selling, that means he doesnt have much trade value. The guy that it ABSOLUTELY KILLS you to sell, is the guy with ALL the trade value.
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Class Time! With a little homework.

Alright, time to go all School Teacher on you ballers again. Look, I love the trade questions, hell I live for the trade questions you all shoot me in the comments section of this blog. I’m here to help and make sure you win. But you need to meet me halfway here and give me the right kind of information! What I need you to do is (rather than just giving me a list of players on your squad) I want to see where your starting rotation is in terms of Average Stats Per Game. You can give me this info for PTS, ASSTS, STLS, REB, BLK, and 3’S. This is VERY easy for you to do, and it will help me target EXACTLY what you need. Once you send me those numbers, I can compare with the ‘Secret Sauce’ and in turn tell you what Buy Low player is best for you and which Sell High player you should deal. Alright, so for instance with rebounds, this is how you calculate:
 
Take each player on your starting roster and write down how many rebounds per game they average this year. You can find this information very easily on their yahoo or espn sports profile page. So you’d have something like:
 
Kobe Bryant = 5.5
Paul Pierce = 4.6
Dwight Howard = 12
 
(obviously your starting rotation has more than 3 players, but I’m keeping this example simple. You likely have more like 10). OK, then you need to add these numbers together: 5.5 + 4.6 + 12 = 22.1. Finally divide by the number of starters on your team: 22.1 / 3 = 7.36.  
 
7.36!! This is how many rebounds per game my team above is averaging. Tell me this number, tell me the same for points, 3’s, ast, stl, and blks. In turn, we will be able to assess where you are weak and where you are strong by comparing them to my Secret Sauce numbers. NOW instead of you saying ‘should I trade for LaMarcus Aldridge?’ and me advising you to do so because he is a good buy low, I can say ‘NO, you’re all set in Rebounds, in fact you’re very strong in rebounds! Let’s Sell High on one of your rebounding guys and Buy Low on a 3 point guy where you need help!’.

Whether you play ROTO or H2H, this is Crucial information for me to know and especially for you to know.
 
Simple steps that will go a long LONG way towards helping me, help you, to DOMINATE!
 
*now don’t just stand there, get out your calculator and pump some numbers. This is crucial information for you to have and it will take roughly 10 minutes to complete!*  
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The Thief's Secret Sauce

OK, as promised I'm going to drop some hardcore analysis on you ballers to take home and dominate with. First, some background. I collected data on 10 different fantasy basketball leagues, going back over the last 5 years. With this data I concocted a formula to pump out what the average per game stat a team needs in order to dominate that category. Now these numbers are based on a 12 team league, so if you're in a league with more or less people, adjust accordingly. To clarify all this, I'm going to give you the average your entire TEAM needs to have for each of the major categories to DOMINATE that category. Before I tell you what to do with this information, let's look at the numbers:

Points: 15.92
Assists: 3.65
Boards: 6.48
Treys: 1.02
Steals: 1.06
Blocks: .77

FG%, FT%, and TO's were WAY too volatile to get an accurate reading on. OK, so what have I just pumped out for you? Simple, go back to your team and start calculating what your Starting Rotation averages in each of these categories. If you're below in a category, consider yourself weak there. If you're above in a category, consider yourself strong there.

Now when you make trades you'll have a benchmark to use to decide what stat categories you should go after. Sure, if I never made an add/drop, and never made a trade, this would be obvious, it would be the categories that I am down in (or keep losing in H2H). But since our rosters are ever changing, we never truly know where we are solid and where we are weak. You could be way down in 3 pointers, but if you just added a 2 new three point shooters, you might've overdone it.

I know, I know, The Thief just hooked you up something sick. It's an unfair advantage that you happened on my blog and all your boys didn't. Whatever, sucks to be them.

Now stay focused and use this info the right way. Check out your team, see where you're weak and where you're strong. Now when trading, we're STILL going to use our PATENTED Buy Low Sell High strategy, we've just added a new hitch. If you're Sell High player happens to represent a category you're strong in, and a buy low target represents a category you're weak in, well thats GOLD FOR YOU. In other words, say you're current team averages 1.8 Treys, and you hold Gallinari, and you're team averages 5 boards a game, when you're RIPE to deal Gallinari for Aldridge and DOMINATE! You follow me?

Now if you happen to be weak in 3's, AND you're holding Gallinari, then you're simply dealing him for another 3 point shooter that's a Buy Low, like Eric Gordon.

Alright, I won't throw any more on you else this'll be like school or somethin, that is, if school meant DOMINATING your boys in fantasy sports! I know it's a lot to digest, so feel free to drop any questions in the comments section, I'm happy to answer em as usual. Remember, I do this same stuff with stocks everyday, so if I move a bit fast it's because my world moves fast.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm still trying to get the rotten bastard holding Rose and Stoudemire to Sell Low to me!
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