Saturday, January 9, 2010

What Is The Most Valuable Category?

Such an important topic to hit today. A little background for you, I've been busy between last night and this morning updating my player ranks and tiers, and updating the data for the Analyzer. It's tough work, but once you get through it, it's fun to look at the results and play around with them.

So this morning I'm going through the ranks and I notice some guys bumping up, some bumping down, and some staying the same and I start to see a pattern. So I went back to the optimizer and essentially asked the question 'Which stat category are you placing the most value on when you rank a guy'.

I came into this season telling myself it was assists, after all there's only a limited amount of PG's out there and there's a pretty big variation between the numbers guys drop. But there's more to the story! The analyzer reminded me that it's not just the variance that matters but the magnitude as well. Sure there's less guys dishing out dimes, but the one's that do, all get a pretty close amount. In other categories, you might have more guys contributing, but the top guys are in such a league of their own that it has a big impact.

So I poured the analyzer and myself a cup of coffee and got down to business. Follwing are the major stat categories and their relative value to one another.

7. Turnovers Per Game -3.66
I'll start with the lowest and easiest, turnovers. We've already established the fact that you can't have a winning team without tanking TO's, and apparently the analyzer agrees with us here. Note the score next to the stat, I placed it there to give you all an idea on the differences.



6. Points Per Game - 4.15
Not a shocker here. While there are a couple of 30 point scorers, there's enough 20+ point scorers and even guys around the 16 mark to make this a deep and easy category to attain.

5. Steals Per Game - 4.80
Whoa, our first surprise. I would've thought steals were a tough category to get. I think that comes from rules changes in the NBA, and also the fact that there's much mroe passing now than there was just a few years ago. No more one on one matchups means more steals, means their easier to find.

4. Rebounds per Game - 5.14
You can thank guys like Ben Wallace and Erick Dampier and even Gerald Wallace for this one. It seems like you can find solid rebounds at almost any position this year, and thus there's only marginable value to acquiring them.

3. ASSISTS PER GAME - 7.40
Now you gotta look at the score here, you can see that I wasn't far off. Assists are quite valuable, but still only 3rd in our list. I was pretty stunned at this one myself. I think it has to do with teams really looking to start a solid distributor on their team, so while dimes only really come from PG's and LBJ, almost all the PG's give you what you need.

2. Three Pointers Per Game - 8.70
Here's your Danilo Gallinari and Channing Frye stat line. You can thank those two for skewing our whole distribution. They just don't feel like they're doing all that much, but apparently just one of them locks you up pretty good. I was surprised here a little, caught off guard.

1. Block Per Game - 8.99!
Wow, you know I would've said blocks after assists, but never thought blocks were that hard to come by. Here's the thinking behind it now that I've looked at the numbers. In order to get a competitive amount of blocks, you're going to either have to get a stud like Howard or Duncan or even Noah, that chip in other categories, or you have to take a Sammy D or Big Ben which will kill you in many places. Yes folks, blocks have the most value in fantasy basketball this year.

Put this information to good use! When forming your trade offers, even if you're strong in a particular category, don't be so quick to ship it off. If you're heavy in blocks, that's a good thing and keep in mind that if you trade yourself short, and someone gets injured, you might have a tough time getting those stats back!

Hope you enjoyed! I'll update later with my latest Top Tiers report.

60 comments:

  1. That nakes me feel good about picking up frye and gallo at the beginning of the season from Waiver. They give you both alot of threes and both avarage nearly 1 block per game.

    I d say if you can buy those two low or even picck em up from waiver, its a hell of a steal.

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  2. Very useful Thief, does this mean the analyiser is updated?

    Secondly, after reviewing your advice; I'm thinking about making some big moves, but don't know if I'm giving up too much or if they are realistic.

    My Squad:
    B Davis, Stuckey, Felton
    Granger, V Carter, Ariza, J Thompson
    Duncan, Z Randolph, Harrington

    Foye, Biedrins, Salmons, Jianlian

    Trades:
    Z Randolph and Ariza for Paul
    Granger and J Thompson for Smith and Al Jefferson

    Is this gonna bring me a better team?

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  3. hey thief whos ur pick...Ersan or mike dunleavy??

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  4. hey thief!

    who should i drop for dunleavy? randy foye or mike miller? im average in everything

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  5. Philv, I like the first one, not the second one.

    Aaron, what up playa! Mike D, he plays well with Granger

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  6. Thief cool post! I like targeting the combo of 3s and blocks hence why I have Bargnani in both leagues. I'm currently good at PG (Kidd, Rondo, Wade, JNelson) and am thinking of offering JNelson for a Frye or a Galinari. My biggest weakness is FTM, FG%, 3PT%.

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  7. Someone in my league picked up Gilbert Arenas and drop Louis Williams.
    Q1. Is there anything new about Gilbert Arenas?
    Q2. Is Louis Williams still valuable? seems he forgets how to dish out assists?

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  8. How do these offers sound?

    Z. Randolph + W. Chandler FOR T. Duncan + K. Perkins.

    and

    Luol Deng + Randy Foye FOR Joakim Noah

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  9. Would that be good to offer Corey Maggette for Joakim Noah? I tried Jason Rich, didn't work out.... Corey Maggette is burning my hand, think if I don't trande him right now, I am gonna regret like hell.
    Can't you give me some potential candiate to trade for him? I need rebounds and maybe blocks.

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  10. HomeG, good luck playa

    Tao, agreed on ole Lou, especialyy with AI on the squad. I haven't heard anything on Gil. He probably read that Yahoo on Yahoo that suggested stashing him incase everyone changes their mind.....on guns lol

    Ak, I like the Noah offer but not the other one.

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  11. how you like my new look team??

    any more trades to target lol. thanks thief


    chris paul, devin harris, jose calderon
    j rich, mayo, mike miller
    josh smith, danny granger
    al jefferson, al harrington, noah, barngni, scola

    sauce:

    threes 1.1
    points 15.9
    bounds 6.2
    dimes 3.62
    steals 1.1
    blocks .7

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  12. What up Thief.
    Recently the owner of D.Howard offered him to me for D.Will. I rejected right away but was curious to get your opinion. This guy's nearly in last place and also has CP3. He's willing to deal.

    My starting lineup & O/U:
    D.Will
    Wade
    Rondo
    Crash
    C.Butler
    Al Jefferson
    B.Lopez
    Brand
    B.Gordon
    J.Richardson

    Bench: Lou Williams, Raymond Felton, Kevin Garnett

    O/U:
    (Fg. -0.068)(Ft. -0.086)(Pts. 0.344)(Reb. -0.049)(Ast. 0.070)(Stl. 0.309)(Blk.-0.001)(3pts-0.500)

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  13. 10 team Roto league btw. My concern is Howards FT% which I'm doing really well in. Jefferson is already one big that stuggles at the line for me.

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  14. Dip, sit tight n let the values rise!

    J, I'd have inked it. If boozer goes, will derons value drop?

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  15. Really huh? I can easily get more out of this deal. He values D.Will to wants to pair him with Paul. What do you think of sending him D.Will & (Felton or Lou Wil) for Dwight Howard & (Eric Gordon or Aaron Brooks)

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  16. hey theif. Chris Bosh and Rudy Gay for Vince Carter, Amare Stoudemire and Aaron Brooks?

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  17. Hey Thief! This is my squad:
    roy,brandon
    hamilton,richard
    harris,devin
    smith,j.r.
    camby,marcus
    stojakovic,peja
    haywood,brendan
    kaman,chris
    wade,dwyane
    west,david
    duhon,chris
    dalembert,samuel

    FG% .456
    FT% .780
    PPG 15.2
    RPG 5.9
    APG 3.3
    SPG .93
    TOs .5
    3PG .832
    BPG .905

    I was offered Antawn Jamison and Yi Jianlian for my Brandon Roy. Think i should take it? What would i be gaining and losing?

    And lastly, are there any suggestions i can take from you to make my team better?
    Thanks a lot!!

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  18. Yoo, you getting Amar'e? If so I love this deal. The ultimate packaged up thievery buy low

    J, let's send him Dwill, Ben Gordo, and Lou for Howard, Eric Gordon, and SOMETHIN SWEET

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  19. DCree, I don't see much variation from Roy to Jamison, but apparently the guy who offered it does. Let's do this, let's send a counteroffer with you giving up Roy and JR Smith, and ask for Jamison and someone who provides points and treys and boards, like Troy Murprhy or Andrea Bargnani or somethin

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  20. Thief I've decided to offer JNelson for Camby. Not sure if he'll accept...but is it worth a shot?

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  21. LOL that'd be pretty sweet but expect an angry reply!

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  22. Alright I hear you Thief, so I made a new offer.

    Z. Randolph + Deng + Hibbert FOR Horford and Haywood

    (should I pursue Nene instead of Horford?)

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  23. The other guy's team is

    Chauncey Billups
    Jason Terry
    Louis Williams
    Antawn Jamison
    Dirk Nowitzki
    Joe Johnson
    Carlos Boozer
    Kevin Love
    Omri Casspi
    Aaron Brooks
    Yi Jianlian
    Corey Maggette
    LaMarcus Aldridge

    i was thinking of using your BRoy and JR for Antawn Jamison and aaron brooks or louis williams? Most likely williams. What do you think?

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  24. how does billups/terry/boozer for gerald wallace/joe johnson sound(and tj ford)?

    and then dropping tj ford for stephen curry

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  25. Hey Thief,

    I'm tryin to score Bargnani

    My team:
    Paul, Jameer, Andre Miller, Terry, Courtney Lee, Mike Miller, Durant, Hedo, Granger, Murphy, Horford, Haywood and Dampier.

    His team:
    Roy, Caron, Lou Will, Battier, Bargnani, Yi, Nene, Andrew Bynum, Blatche, Baron Davis, Wilson Chandler, Hawes, and Stuckey.

    He's a bit of a stickler so it may be hard for me to grab his player.

    Thanks for the help.
    AK

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  26. hey thief,

    What do you think of this trade?

    I GET: Lebron, Dwight, AI
    I GIVE: Bosh, Melo, Rondo

    My Team:
    B. Davis, Rondo, Jameer, Deng, Bosh, Melo, Beasley, Perkins, Redd, Yi, S.Curry, Salmons, J. Crawford.

    His Team:
    Devin Harris, Rose, Rip, LBJ, Dwight, Boozer, Duncan, AI, Scola, Stephen Jackson, Blake Griffin, TMac.

    Am I giving too much?

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  27. hey thief
    dropping a. randolph...
    should i pick up mike miller or mike dunleavy?

    ReplyDelete
  28. What's up Thief. Here's my team and numbers. What moves do you think I can make? My league is a 20 team keeper with pts, rebs, asts, stls, and to's all worth 1 point.

    pts: 16.943
    rebs: 6.043
    asts: 2.621
    stls: 1.012
    to's: .517

    starters:
    monta ellis
    wilson chandler
    rashard lewis
    dirk nowitzki
    chris bosh

    bench:
    andre miller
    kyle lowry
    jr smith
    tracy mcgrady
    ryan gomes
    carl landry
    ben wallace

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  29. I should add that matchups aren't determined by who wins the most categories. They are determined by who accumulates the most fantasy points.

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  30. Akur, I'd rather see u go for horf an nene.

    Dcree, ask for Jamison n boozer. Boozer been slumping so he might bite, n if not he might give us a sweet counter.

    Eric I like it. LOL he still has TJ hahaha!

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  31. Thief,

    Hope you are not overloaded with all these questions. Oh no your not ok well here's another one lol.

    i need assists and i've been losing big time in ft% due to Howards terrible shooting skills. So here is my offer to the other playa.


    Dwight, Scola, and CDR

    for

    Gasol, D Harris, and Andreis Biedrins

    Am I giving up too little for this trade?

    ReplyDelete
  32. Ak, let's send him Andre miller and Jason Terry.

    Andy, not if we're gettin both lbj and Howard!

    Y4! Welcome back buddy! We need to cash in on Wilson Chandler, package him with Andre miller an go for a tier two or three player back. I'm still workin on tryin to make the analyzer work for your odd setup.

    Loho, miller definitely!

    Shawn, thief's always got your back. This is close enough to send. He'll love Howard an you're buyin low on biedrins at the right time. CDR is garbage but no one seems to know that. Ink it my man.

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  33. Thanks, I got back from PR today. It was freezing when I got off the plane. What position do you think I should go for? I'm short on centers and will be on guards if I move those two.

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  34. What Up Thief...

    First off...this topic sick....

    my sauce is
    My Over/Under

    FG 0.141
    FT -0.189
    PPG 0.314
    RPG 0.164
    APG 0.187
    SPG 0.348
    THR 0.009
    BLK -0.028

    what u think bout goin ahead and punting that free throw and tryna trade al jeff and jameer for d howard?

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  35. For anyone who is interested, initial reports shows Anthony Randolph will be out 4-6 weeks with a fractured ankle. Undergoing a CT Scan today.

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  36. Y4, go one of each.

    Clint, thx bro. Solid offer an your FT won't change too much by shippin out AJ.

    Bando, good lookin out! I just made an offer for Biedrins, he'll see more MPG now. Sent hibbert n barbosa. Straight thievin!

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  37. The problem with picking up Andris for me, is the guy who owns him has to let go of his team due to personal reasons. This has caused a stir in my league because of course other owners want to raid some of his players(Nash, Bryant, Pierce, etc). The commissioner has stated that we have to offer players for his and if it isn't vetoed, then he will allow the trade. I suggested to also look for someone who might want to take over his team. Have you ever experience a similar scenario? What do you think of this approach?

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  38. sup thief, i got a trade offer for my kevin martin for sjax + troy murphy. is this a no brainer?

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  39. Hibbert is on waivers. I wonder if I should pick him up and then offer him for Andris?

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  40. Is Andris more valuable than hibbert or perkins?

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  41. my offer of ariza and wilson for rondo got turned down and he sent rondo and jeff green for josh smith and ariza
    and my offer of ariza and wilson for jkidd got turned down he says im not trading a top 15 player for those to. I dont see kid worth that much but ok.

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  42. I don't know about Perkins, but I would say Andris is more valuable than Hibbert if only because Hibbert's playing time is inconsistent.

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  43. Hey, Thief, do you think I should try and sell Brandon Jennings for Devin Harris? It would be a miracle, if the owner of Harris bites though.

    I have to admit I bought Jennings at a point in time, when I thought he was in the midst of his slump (early December), so I was thinking he would go out of it and start shooting somewhere between 42 and 45%. So my idea was something like a buy low, cause his owner wanted to get rid of him, because of that recent low FG%. But, oh well, you know what happened - it turns out he was not in the middle, but rather at the beginning of his slump... In fact, it seems like he is not in a shooting slump at all - he is simply a piece of sh*t and will never get better, cause he has nothing in his head! >_< And everyone knows it, so he's not a sell high, despite the Analyzer indicating that - he hasn't been since mid November...

    So what do you think? Should I still keep some hope that his shooting might improve a bit and THEN try and sell him for better value?

    On the other hand, if I have any chance of that other manager accepting stupid Jennings right now, should I try a higher offer... like Jennings + Stephen Curry for his Devin Harris, then pick up from the wire... who? - Leandro Barbosa, Josh Howard, Mike Dunleavy, Randy Foye...?

    My Over/Under scores:

    FG%: 0.016
    FT%: 0.322
    Points: -0.071
    Boards: 0.138
    Assists: 0.137
    Steals: -0.253
    Treys: 0.004
    Blocks: -0.067

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  44. @ Christomir

    It is a 10team H2H and he is last place. I don't have a problem with it, but I don't think the commissioner would go for it as it a job league.

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  45. I thought you wanted me to do a 2 for 1? What do you expect I can get in a 2 for 2?

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  46. Aha, OK, Bandoogie, don't worry about me then. Anyway, I would have only wanted to join, if it was roto...

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  47. Hey Thief.

    WHen you say SOMETHING NICE would Aaron Brooks, Beasly, Kevin love or Rodney Stuckey fit the bill. (I Don't think he wants to move love with the loss of Howard) I'm talkin about the DWill, Ben Gordon and Lou Will for Dwight Howard, Eric Gordon and SOMETHING NICE! lol

    Thanks thief!

    He also has

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  48. My thoughts would be to offer him Dwill, Lou Will and Gordon for Dwight, Eric Gordon and Aaron Brooks.

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  49. thief, is this a great deal?

    i give: ilyasova,varejao jermaine= all hot! haha
    i get: beasley, alston

    any thoughts?

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  50. Hey Thief, all this biedris talk, got me thinking, I have randolph(tried to get j-rich for him but he got hurt) and wondering who i should drop him for....a.miller, mike miller, foye, haywood, b.gordon ?? kinda leaning towards haywood for boards. also, thought maybe i should offer up artest for andris and see. what do you think??? great articles by the way.

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  51. Welp my team has became so dominant i ran into a huge problem...this all were accepted...

    my lou will for rashard lewis
    my boozer and jameer for bosh
    my al jeff and jameer for dhoward
    ALL VETOED by my league...

    the explanation i got was ur already in first and got a team of all stars why are we gon let u make any trades that can benefit u..
    i did manage to get in my kev love for gerald wallace before the veto party began...

    any suggestions here
    i had the guy who wanted al and jameer post on the msg board explainin why it was even...but no response yet...
    u ever had a problem like this....

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  52. hey thief,

    what you think about this trade. my rondo +jonny flynn for dhoward and foye. 16 team roto league. CATS: fgm, fg%, ftm, ft%, 3ptm, 3pt%, stls, blks, ast/t.o, reb ast.

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  53. Bando, that's BRUTAL sorry bro. Never had that happen before. Def grab Hibbert.

    Woozy, whats up dood, NO BRAINER

    Dan, YUP on Biedrins, and I'd take the rondo/green deal.

    Christo, welcome back ole buddy. Jennings was a sell high because he's ONLY GOT WORSE LOL. Yeah I'd go for the kill, go Jennings and Curry then grab Foye.

    J, sounds good

    Bando, no news yet

    JB, great deal, INK IT BROSAM!

    nhern, grab either Haywood or Mike Miller. I like the Biedrins offer too. Thanks for the kudos.

    Clint, read my old post 'the best way to play fantasy sports' lol deals directly with this.

    Carlo, INK IT!!

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  54. OK, Thief, I'll try that.

    But, as I've told you earlier, I'm worried that giving up Curry might get me in trouble with the steals category... So the guy I would grab off the wire would have to be reasonable in that respect. Do you think Foye will be able to get me at least 1 steal per game with the increased playing time?

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  55. after doing that deal, i will deal omri.. can you say to me a big man that i can deal with omri. go it? thanks!

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  56. Theif, I'm out of playoff contention and am basically trading for the hell of it. Should I deal Rudy Gay, Martell Webster for J-Rich and Hedo?

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  57. I just read that CT scan shows Randolph did not break or fracture his ankle. The team will set a timetable later today. Maybe I won't have to get rid of him after all.

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