Monday, January 4, 2010

Nate Robinson and the 41 Point Game.

DBefore I get to the post, I just want to let everyone know that the new version of the spreadsheet will be available around 6pm EST today. It has some really cool new features including a separate player analyzer. To access the spreadsheet you need to be receiving my posts via feed. If you do receive posts via feed (use any one of the links on this page, including the Google connect link on the right) then at the bottom of the feed will be a ‘footer’ which will contain the latest password. This is the only way I can ensure users are blog subscribers. Do note that sometimes the feed has a delay, so it can take a bit of time before you get the post in your feed. One way to check and make sure you are getting the posts via feed is to also subscribe for comments via feed, since those go out all day. I can also send the password through comments if need be. Once you have the password, enter it by clicking on the button clearly marked at the top right of the page. The redirect will take you to the spreadsheet. If the redirect doesn’t work, it’s likely your web browser. Try changing to a different browser (I.E. or Firefox) and see if that helps. Also try disabling the popup blocker.

Trust me, I am working day and night to make this a more efficient process.

On to the topic of the day and that topic is Nate Robinson. I gotta admit, I don’t watch many NY Knicks games so the whole Nate Robinson scores 41 caught me off guard. During the performance and particularly after it, following through the next day, I received some reader questions asking my opinion on him. My opinion was the same after his performance as it was before his performance, he’s useless. Look, we all know Nate is very talented and really could be either a starter or a solid sixth man on any squad. Prior to the whole Mike D arrival, Nate Rob was in that exact role.



But there are rumors and innuendos and hearsay that will have you believe that Mike D and Nate Rob didn’t get along or they both were in love with the same girl or whatever. Fact is the numbers tell you that Robinson is not fantasy worthy this year mainly due to inconsistent play and decreased minutes. Does scoring 41 points change all that? Nope, not one bit. It was a great effort, but it wasn’t like he was going to be inserted as a starter the very next night.

Now some fantasy sports analysts would have you jump on the train with your eyes closed. They care not about the past, and just need something to write about, so they’re going to tell you to grab Nate with reckless abandon. Stupid, Stupid, Stupid. But don’t worry; thief’s got your back. Look over the course of any season there’s going to be many instances of this, some random talented player making it all happen at once with a stellar performance. Before you go adding and dropping an trading, ask yourself…

Has this guy been a starter all year? Will he likely be a starter going forward? Was this a ‘breakout’ game, i.e. has he never come close to this before, or have we seen this picture before (Nate had a 41 point game last year too). Most importantly, who can I possibly drop to acquire Nate (if he’s already owned, forget it, you don’t need to be paying top dollar here). I’ll say this, feel free to add Nate to your roster if and only if you are dropping a guy that you are pretty confident no one in your league is going to pick up. That’s the only case of adding him. My bench is Barbosa, Griffin and Allen Iverson, Nate doesn’t fit that bunch.

Most importantly, if you do go out and add this guy to your squad, KEEP HIM ON YOUR BENCH! 10 out of 10 times (ok that exaggerates a wee bit) this guy is going to put up a 6 point clunker in the very next game. One performance does not make a guy fantasy start able. Make him prove himself, cause once he’s in you can’t take it back. Don’t let Joe Schmoe influence you into dropping a very useful player for him, Joe doesn’t care about your team, he cares about pushing out a story. What Joe is good for is reporting, not opinion, so read that story again and take in what he says about Gilbert Arenas. Now that’s useful information.

30 comments:

  1. Ugh, looks like the links didn't copy over. Stupid email posts! I'll update when I get home. The referenced article was a roto arcade piece out yesterday.

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  2. yea thief, im guilty. i jumped on nate rob. i was watchin the game at home, and seeing some of the shots this guy was makin, it was hard to belive he couldnt do that night in and night out. i only dropped conley for him, so it wasnt huge decision. should i keep nate on the squad or make a move?

    FA: Conley, Barnes, ty lawson, barbosa, rich jefferson, kirolenko, lowry, jarrat jack

    team:

    chris paul, devin harris. calderon, nate rob
    jason richardson, oj mayo
    rudy gay josh smith rashard lewis
    brook lopez andrea barnagni joakim noah luis scola

    sauce:

    threes .91
    points 15.67
    bounds 5.97
    dimes 3.62
    steals 1.09
    blocks .8

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  3. Hey thief bynum for kg?i Have gasol on same team?

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  4. Yo Thief! Ariza for KG? Or would I have to throw in a little more? I'm trying to unload that guy. Waiting to see what the other manager is planning to do with Pau Gasol that he is injured. I know I can strike a steal now.

    sauce:
    15.83pts
    5.40rebs
    3.06asts
    .900stls
    1.09 treys
    .60 blks

    On another note, I am really excited to peep your updated SS calculator tonight. Its like going from standard def to HD tv in on application. Great job on that clarity!

    Good article on Nate rob as well. I had picked up him up when he was scorching hot last year. Rode that train all the way to the playoffs.

    Thanks again for the advice.

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  5. What up Thief. I'm looking to add Bynum so I can shift Al Jef to the PF position and really balance out my roster. What should I offer this guy. He does have interest in Brand and Lou Will.

    My Roster is:

    Dwill
    Wade
    Rondo
    G.Wallace
    C.Butler
    Brand
    Al. Jef
    B.Lopez
    Ben Gordon
    J.Rich

    Bench: Lou Will, Kevin Garnett, Charlie V.

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  6. I could offer up a two for one like Charlie V and Lou Will than grab Barbosa or Bibby off the Wire. Is Bynum worth it? I had him at the start of the season when Pau was out and he dominated. Pau might be out again which is why I'm trying to pull a fast one on this manager in my league.

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  7. Mamba, you can hold an put him on your bench. See if he gets more PT, but for me, I like barbosa, whose treys would help u too.

    Dan, u getting or giving KG?

    Qwan, what the heck? Try sendin it with a bench player too, maybe he bites?

    J, if u can move Lou n Charlie, that's a solid price to pay. Careful tho, he might hold bynum for the same reason.

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  8. Thief,

    My players are:
    Andre Miller
    Terry
    Nelson
    Courtney Lee
    Murphy
    Mike Miller
    Haywood
    Dampier
    Paul
    Hedo
    Beasley
    Durant
    Josh Smith

    Tyson Chandler just got dropped. Is he worth picking up?

    Thanks.

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  9. hey thief,

    i was just offered trevor ariza and ramon sessions for jonny flynn and steph curry. your opinion?

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  10. Everyone is trying to unload Ariza Thief. He really is an inconsistant player who can't shoot well from the charity stripe or the field goal. I watch night after night when he just jacks up shot after shot.

    My bad on the previous post. I was looking to deal my ariza for another managers KG.

    Also, I was speaking on the aforementioned my Frye+Nelson+Joe Johnson for his P.Gasol+Rondo+J.R. Smith. I cancelled the trade and sent a message saying I know Gasol is injured and make me a resonable offer.

    On another note, What do you think about the Arenas situation? Think he's taking a longer than usual vacation?

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  11. and thief i was also offer lbj and blake griff for my calderon and melo. your take?

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  12. Thief,
    Sorry I had another question. You think getting Emeka by giving Beasley is a good trade for me?

    Thanks. Can't wait for the new sauce calc.

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  13. Thief,

    Mike Dunlavey got dropped and has passed the waiver period. I can pick him up as a FA now. Is he worth a drop and pick up with my team?

    My Squad: 12 team H2H 10ppl rosta

    Billups
    Courtney Lee (picked up cause someguy jumped on the Nate Rob bandwagon)
    Jay Rich
    G wallace
    Nene
    Dwight Howard
    Luis Scola
    Al Harrington
    Hedo Turkoglu
    Dwight Howard
    Erick Dampier
    Tyrus Thomas
    Omri Casspi (Is there update sauce number for this guy? He gets better every game)
    Douglas Roberts

    Current Sauce Numbers

    PPG 14.89
    RPG 6.85
    APG 2.34
    SPG 1.11
    TO 0.53
    3PG 0.88
    BPG 0.86

    Thanks for your time.

    -Shawn

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  14. Thief, I'm still trying to sell high on Tyreke Evans, although I like him so much...LOL What would you think of offering him for Paul Pierce in a straight 1-1? (You might not recall, but I had Pierce back when his FG % was still unrealistically high and sold him to his current owner, who suffered through Pierce's mean reversion...LOL)

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  15. Hey thief another question besides one aboue i asked the ther day about dealing melo in a package to acquir amare and deron or gay. I sent the offer you told me to with melo and ariza for amare and deron. He just sent me melo and derk for amare and deron obviously i dont want that. should i counter and with what or work with ome one else? my team:
    arenas,gilbert
    ariza,trevor
    anthony,carmelo
    nowitzki,dirk
    love,kevin
    gordon,ben
    hilario,nene
    camby,marcus
    bogut,andrew
    smith,j.r.
    but jr and camby i just traded for west should go thru by wed.
    and on my bench i have kevin martin, tyrus thomas, and lou william
    his teams is in last place and is:
    Deron Williams
    Ray Allen
    Jason Terry
    Michael Redd
    Amar'e Stoudemire
    Rudy Gay
    Tyson Chandler
    Rasheed Wallace
    Mario Chalmers
    Baron Davis
    Elton Brand
    Larry Hughes
    Leandro Barbosa
    So What do i do?
    another team sent me pierce and boozer for melo and ariza but bot crazy about that.

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  16. Carlo grab tha lbj trade asap!! Thats a steal.

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  17. It works... had to download the foxfire. Okay here is the run down.
    12 team league, play max games, standard cats
    Conley
    Westbrook
    Joe Johnson
    jrich
    Tyrus
    Yi
    Emeka
    Dwight
    Camby
    david west
    iggy
    peja
    Sauce Numbers
    ppg=14.25
    rpg=6.87
    apg=2.79
    stl=.94
    to=.50
    3's=.829
    blk=.98
    only things missing are fg% and ft%

    I see alot of red underneath, but pretty much lead most cats every week, or very competitive minus FT%. How does the team look, and Griffen is on the ww right now.

    Thanks, the spreadsheet is wicked

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  18. what up thief....
    Im tryna make a 2 for 1 deal so i can clear up a spot...2 teams arent active in my league...but some players that are on active teams are bosh, t murph, nene, pierce, iggy, kg, tim duncan, ellis....should i target any of these for a 2-1...here is my team...

    PG DWIll
    Rondo
    J Nelson
    Lou WIll
    SG KevMart
    DWade
    SF Gallanari
    PF Boozer
    Al Jeff
    K Love
    C Lopez
    Frye
    Beidrins

    Im trying to get a deal done G wallace for love...he said he would do it but then backed out today....so im still workin on that deal.... but i wld love to get a 2 for 1 done for an upgrade

    my sauce is
    
16.49 pts
    
6.57 rbs
    
3.76 asts
    
1.13 stls
    
.9 threes
    
.69 Blks

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  19. sup thief... haha nearly bit on that lil bugger after 41... lucky didn't move, knew it was too good to be true, 6 the next night!!

    2 questions...

    1. HINRICH on the bubble that he may end up in washington, fantasy value with arenas if all goes as rumours suggest? AND same 'Q for TMAC...?

    2. trade offered; GRIFFIN - ODOM [me]

    **

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  20. Hey Thief!!! Just traded Gallinari for Bargnani, is that thievin or what? Also will the password for the new calculator remain the same or will it be different? Thanks!

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  21. Thief, in looking at your past posts wouldn't you say that Robinson is a sell high candidate at this point?

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  22. ayo thief.

    so i just joined the dynasty league (so some of my upcoming questions will be dynasty related)

    and this guy offered me
    noah/iggy for my granger/casspi/haslem

    what are your thoughts? (in that league i have way too many 3pt shooters and low elsewhere, ill update my sauce, etc. when the new calc comes out)
    please give me your thoughts.

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  23. One guy in my league is trying to sell Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler(he is probably worried abot the effect of Arenas absence on them) He also has Chris Paul I was thinking of offering My Jason Kidd and Devin Harris plus one of ( Tim Duncan, Amare, Bosh) for hes CP3 and Antawn . I have a 8 team league so i have lots of solid guys on the FA.

    So I Basically want to know what do you think abot Antawns stats whidout Arenas and Who should I offer if at all?
    Thanks in advance!!!

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  24. Thief, I am getting your posts via e-mail. Where is the password? Do I have to get an email to a specific post? I subscribed after posting to the Nate Robinson blog. Any ideas.
    Thanks. I can't wait to get the calc!!!

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  25. Sorry I missed all these questions, I was uploading the spreadsheet. I'm sure you're all using it as we speak! Hit me up under the latest post with any more questions!

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  26. hey thief, who do you like for the rest of the season Andrew Bogut or Andris Biedrins. thanks man

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  27. hey thief, i'm second in my league in treys averaging a shade under 32 treys per week. I'm really week in rebounding and have solid but not great steals. There is one owner who is interested in Ray Allen and has Butler on the block. You think that 1-1 is good? or should i go after his Gallinari plus another?

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  28. Hi Theif,

    Could you post the password again?

    Raky

    ReplyDelete