Last Month's Average Stats

We can use the Analyzer and pump players in, we can look for articles that list guys out, but I’ve got an even easier way to help you find those key Buy Low and Sell High targets we’re all looking for: Last Month Average Stats. Most default stat lists, such as Yahoo or ESPN will default to the Season Total stats and then rank players from there. They have the option to change the periodicity (week, month, season) as well as the method (average or total), but people often overlook these. For my work I like to set it to Average stats over the last Month. Here’s why:

When we sort by season stats, the most prominent stat we are looking at is Games Played. If a guy missed a month this season, but has been a monster since he’s returned, he still won’t look as good as an average player that hasn’t missed a single game. Ok that’s the obvious stuff. What it also shows is each manager in your leagues relative frustration level with a specific player. If a player has underperformed for the whole season, chances are pretty good that his owner has gone well past the frustration level and into stubbornness. He’s likely now convinced this guy is going to have a monster second half. For us, chances are pretty good that a guy who has underperformed from day one, and hasn’t had any significant injuries, just isn’t very good anymore. A good example of this is Shawn Marion.

On the flip side, a player that has underperformed for the last month has really, just gone cold. These are the guys most managers are dying to dish off. It gets them scared, they wonder if the player will ever return to glory or if he’s doomed for failure. They fear they must trade him now before his value goes even lower. They enter into fire sell mode, and start rapid firing offers out to everyone, usually asking for way too much. If the guy is a Tier Three player, they’ll send him out asking for a Hot Tier Three player in return. No one is going to take your cold Tier Three for their Hot Tier Three, that’s just plain stupid. And thus everyone will send back a prompt rejection…..everyone but US. Take a glance at those Average Stats over the last month, sort the players by their preseason rank (I know you can do this in Yahoo, not sure about ESPN), then read through the list for those guys with a huge difference in the ranks. For some, we can just ignore and skip over, like (again) Shawn Marion (no I will never buy him low). But some are those hidden gems we’re digging for. About four days ago, one of the best that would pop up for you would’ve been Jason Richardson.

Richardson was a prime target. Hot start, quick extended decline, prime for the plucking. I snagged him up for pennies on the dollar in my league, and I hope you all followed suit. The buy low is door is quickly closing on him. Look to offer a Hot Tier five or maybe even Tier four player in the deal. One guy that’s ripe to be dealt is Randy Foye, people love him and his potential. He’s never going to go higher than Tier Three (this season anyway) so why not ink a deal for a guy we know is in that Tier.

Oh yeah, my latest run through of the Average Month Stats and rankings, brought up some solid buy low candidates like Al Jefferson, Lamarcus Aldridge and even Carlos Boozer….bet you didn’t know that last one, unless you owned him of course!

So what are you waiting for? There’s offers to be made!