It's time to shift strategy here, and get into end game mode. We're past the halfway mark, with both the All Star break and the NBA Trade Deadline looming. Now one thing I can tell you about the trade deadline is that you're going to hear a lot more chatter and a lot more rumors, but that doesn't necessarily mean we're going to see fireworks. Don't be surprised when there's only 2 or 3 more real trades from now to the deadline.
So it's time to implement End Game strategy. Close this puppy up. We only have until our leagues trading deadline to make any more real moves, it's important to focus our efforts on what can be done, not what we wish to get done. I'll run the gambit on my own squad to give you a glimpse on mindset, so that you might do the same.
For starters, now that Kevin Martin is back producing, coupled with a healthy David West, and Jason Richardson giving me enough of what I need from him, I'm back ready to take on some risk. Contrarily, if I were holding guys like Boozer, Roy (though he's going to be back soon here), or Mo Williams, I'm probably not in a very good position to take on some risk. People in those situations need to focus on getting their squad healthy before making a move. It's alright to still shop a Sell High player, but I wouldn't try to add an uncertain Buy Low in doing so (instead try working the ole 2-1).
Alright, I scan my current team:
PG - Paul
SG - Martin
SF - Jackson, Richardson
PF - Wallace, Jamison, West, Beasley
C - Biedrins, Noah
Bench - Delfino, Iverson, Dunleavy
Next I earmark the Sell High players I want to move: Delfino, Stephen Jackson, and I'm open to moving Gerald Wallace to ink a Tier One player and I'll add Iverson to any deal if that pushes it over the top. Now here's where the shift in strategy comes in, I'm not going to list out a bunch of buy low or target players I want to go after, instead, I'm going to scan my league and target specific managers.
I'm currently in first place, which really hampers my ability to make moves (half the league will reject my offers by rightfully pointing out that there's no reason to make my team better). These are going to be the teams working their way steadily to the top, they have momentum, they feel confident. There's also two teams down bottom that I can't deal with, they recognize their demise was partially related to me sneaking a player or two from them on the cheapy cheap. They feel burned, no need to waste time there.
That narrows it down to four targets for me. One is the guy who was in first place for a couple weeks, and has since slide to 5th and dropping. He feels great pressure to make a move. One is the guy who hasn't made a deal all season long, and is still in 7th place. By now he's realizing he needs to ink a trade. One is the guy who's been between places 2-4 all season, briefly sitting at 1 for a bit too, but just took a huge hit from losing Boozer and Parker. He knows he hangs by a string, and will look to add needed depth. Finally is the owner of KG. I don't have a season story for him, I just 'know this guy'. He's itching to move KG, not happy with what he's seen from him. Perfect guy to target.
They're all perfect to target. I've got each one sitting in my back pocket and now is the time to get aggressive. Again, I don't start out targeting players, I start out targeting managers that I believe I have the highest probability of making a deal with. No need to waste time trying to convince a stubborn manager to deal with me, I need to ink these guys away before the deadline hits.
I send four offers, with a little message:
Stephen Jackson + Gerald Wallace for Lebron James.
Note: Time's running out, you might as well cash in on LBJ to give yourself a shot at placing. I don't mind paying up, I've got a deep bench. Let's do this.
Jackson + Biedrins + Iverson for Bargnani and Brook Lopez (a real lowball offer!)
Note: You've got a depth issue and a PG issue big time. You can't really compete by hemorrhaging categories like assists any longer. The way I see it, it's Jackson for Lopez (which is even) and Iverson/Biedrins for Bargs, which is even. Disagree?
Delfino and Jackson for Al Jefferson:
Note: This is got to be the stupidest offer I've ever made. Obviously I'm dealing you a ridiculous boost in treys, which you need to compete with me. Moreover, you're getting much more in return valuewise than you are giving up. Whatever, my team is deep, I'm comfortable in treys with Martin back, and I'm not worried about Al's injury history. Let's do this!
Delfino + Jackson + Iverson for Garnett and Jeff Green (I think I have the best shot here).
Note: Take the value for Garnett while he still has any left. You're getting a big boost in three's here, not to mention the extra assists. I think I can handle an injury from KG if/when he goes down, I have a deep team. Let's do this.
Each of those notes says the same thing to the manager, 'I studied your team and your position, I put effort into this offer, I know what you're thinking and what you need, let's do business'. It's like being on a date with a girl who's not been out with too many guys before, you gotta hold her hand and nudge her in the direction she wants to go in. Some people just need to be told what to do.
Will I knock down one of these deals? I don't know, it's tough being the guy in first place. Nonetheless, I've narrowed my field and am targeting just those managers I feel I have the best shot at dealing with. The rest of them are a waste of time. Oh, and one more thing, I put this post up just this morning:
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Time To Step it Up, Time To Get Aggressive
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