Prepping For the Playoffs

It’s a bit early to start worrying, but it’s just about the right time to start planning for the last two weeks of the season. Whether you play a Roto format or in a H2H format, the last two weeks of the season are vitally important. Most Roto formats decide the ultimate winner in that span, and H2H leagues are immersed in the playoffs. The last thing you want to see during that span is one of your star players hitting the bench, averaging fewer minutes, and putting up terrible stat lines. In gaming for that last week of the season, there’s two types of teams you want to avoid and one type you can count on.

1> Beware the Overachievers

It doesn’t take a genius to see that the Boston Celtics are going to run away with the Atlantic Division title. They currently have a 9 game lead over the Raptors, and barring any unforeseen catastrophes, that’ll only get bigger. The Celtics also have one of the oldest rosters in the league, and their core players are all battling either injuries or fatigue. Moreover they’ve got the best bench in the league, which has proven time and again they can win games on their own. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that you should expect KG, Ray Ray, and Pierce to all take some extended time off during those last two weeks. I think Rondo will be OK, however if the Celtics do end up inking a deal for Hinrich, you can expect them to use that time period to get him acclimated to the offense. Perkins is pretty young and still developing so I don’t see him losing much time, and I’d even go so far as to say Rasheed will see increased minutes since they will need him hot to make a late run. You can see their minutes last year here, and note that Pierce played through the end averaging 30 MPG, as did Perkins, while KG was injured and Ray Ray sat the last two games.

Looking at the Cavaliers, you don’t have as much to worry about because they are a younger squad in general, save for Shaquille O’Dinosaur. LBJ and Mo Williams both kept up consistent minutes until Mo sat the last game of the season. I don’t think that will change much so I wouldn’t worry about anyone other than Shaq. However the dominant team of the West, the LA Lakers are a different story. They’ve got a deeper team this year with the addition of Ron Artest, and more importantly, have some injury issues to contend with themselves. Last year we saw Kobe on the court for about 25 minutes in the last two games of the season, putting up only 16 points in ach contest. Expect them to have a comfortable lead going into that final week and expect Kobe, Pau, and Bynum to all see a reduced workload.

2> Avoid the Bottom Dwellers

The Wizards are in a de-facto rebuilding season. If they’ve still got Jamison, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him get less time to make room for a young budding player. The NJ Nets are horrible; it won’t take much for them to reduce the minutes of Harris or Lopez in order to make room for bench players. The Nets know those guys are talented and they have nothing to play for. On the flip side, a guy like CDR will likely see increased minutes during that last week or two, and could really put up some savior numbers. The Kings will also likely be way out of it, and their M.O. has been to shut down Kevin Martin towards the end of the season. There are rumors Martin could be moved by the trade deadline, but if that doesn’t prove to fruition, we should look to deal him in late March. On these teams, it’s the younger players with something to prove, like Cassipi or Thompson, that should be great assets for your team.

3> The Sweet Spot

The teams I like to target for those final two weeks are the teams jockeying for a playoff spot. It’s a bit early, but you can already see the Charlotte Bobcats fitting that bill. They’re a hungry team that’s never made the playoffs before with some awesome talent and a proven coach. They currently hold the 7^th seed in the East, a position I expect them to stick around. Two players that can carry you during that all important stretch run are Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace. Even Ray Felton will be a nice chip on your side. Another team in that Sweet Spot is Chicago, look for both Noah and Rose to really play their heart out towards the end.

I’m not suggesting anyone run out and start making deals to move or acquire any of these guys. This is more of a ‘heads up!’ Sometimes we get so involved in our planning to make the playoffs that we lose focus on the actual playoffs. As the season inches closer, I’ll sound the alarm on those young budding stars in line to get extended minutes that have the potential to carry you to victory.

So let’s hear it Thief Nation? Got a story about either a superstar burning you during the final weeks of the season, or a budding star carrying you to victory?